Long-dated Treasuries are a good long because they lock in returns above 5% for 20 years, attractive versus other government yields. Yields should fall either way on AI, since an AI boom is deflationary and an AI bust means recession. x.com  x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries face zero fiscal responsibility, sticky inflation, new Middle East conflicts and competition from Magnificent 7 bonds, which is why their bull market ended in 2020. Unless 2027 or later brings a recession, buying them is not worth it. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors may face deflationary telco-equipment economics as chip throughput improves and compute deployment eases. Nvidia's tokens per chip rise dramatically each year; three or four deflationary forces could converge. LLMs sell tokens as carriers sold minutes, leaving consumers the main beneficiaries after penetration. If that analogy holds, few bulls would like either business. App developers may benefit after the customer ramp, though LLM providers could build their own. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries should eventually rally because oil will come down and the 30-year yield will have to follow. With the 30-year yield and oil elevated, prices are still heading lower for now, and a 30-year yield trending above 6% would make this a very strong trade. x.com 

If AI, semiconductors and robotics deliver the economy's biggest productivity gains, they become a capital black hole that drains investment from other industries and lifts yields and real rates. Owning Walmart and Costco at 50x P/E or Coca-Cola at 25x would then make no sense, and few savers would accept a 5% Treasury yield while the AI economy booms. Investment demand jumps as savings fall, so the risk-free rate climbs and macro valuations compress. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries are set up for the opposite of 2020, because interest rates and oil prices are mean-reverting series whose rise naturally leads to their collapse. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com  x.com 

AI compute shares face a new threat as AI giants collectively signal a slowdown, the first real cooling of the most crowded and expensive trade of the past year. Asia-Pacific stocks fell 0.9%, the KOSPI 3%, Nasdaq futures 1.2% and SoftBank as much as 13%. If AI capex slows, high-valuation tech must re-prove its profits; with Brent up 2.5% to $107.20 after a key Saudi pipeline closed and the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, inflation and rates are unlikely to ease fast. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could rally 20-30% over the next few years if deflation outpaces growth for a period. That would pull investors into bonds to lock in higher yields, pushing yields down, since government money printing isn't keeping up with emerging deflation. US government finances should also strengthen as growth outpaces debt, making bonds more attractive. It is a small bet that should work for a period of time. x.com  x.com  x.com