Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com  x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.com 

The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

Long-dated US Treasuries look favorable as the rise in 10-year yields appears mostly over; inflation searches have peaked, and only 13 of 29 tracked commodities are above their 50-day averages. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries have further to fall because bonds have not reached capitulation and may still be in denial. Treasury prices have hit fresh lows, and the selling plausibly comes from anyone who needs to repay US-dollar-denominated debt. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look set for a 20-50% move over a few months as bond prices sweep their lows, as they did in 2004 and 2018. That would mean a rate cut and falling long-term yields are closer than expected. A rate hike is almost certainly not coming, despite @CrazySmitty271's call for at least two imminent hikes; rates could hold for a few more months, but a hike would be destructive and unnecessary. Long bonds remain a contrarian trade. x.com  x.com