Sandisk's tightening grip on the NAND channel makes bearishness on NAND look misplaced. Per a memory supply-chain expert call relayed by @Jadzo1_, Sandisk is said to be requiring some distributors to accept non-cancelable, non-returnable terms with about 30% upfront deposits, pushing parts of the channel toward much harder long-term supply commitments. x.com 

SanDisk should start its next leg up soon, as it says customers are giving it demand signals all the way out to the end of the decade, per @pequityresearch. x.com 

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com 

SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler's report of customer signals beyond fiscal 2030 adds storage to the long-duration AI hardware-demand case. He says those signals come through new-business-model partnerships; Micron and SK hynix in memory and Lumentum in photonics were already cited as signs of demand beyond 2030. x.com 

Sandisk looks risky at these levels because China's YMTC is stabilizing cutting-edge NAND yields and ramping production, a predictable threat not yet priced into the stock. Per @jukan05, YMTC plans to mass-produce its most advanced NAND at Wuhan Fab 3 from H2 2026, is winning major overseas customers, and is projected to surpass SK Hynix and Micron in NAND output by year-end. x.com  x.com 

The memory supercycle has years left, with the shortage modeled through 2028 because AI data centers need memory as much as GPUs. 2026 NAND demand is growing 20-22% against supply growth of 15-17%. Sandisk guided Q3 revenue to $4.4-4.8B, and its gross margin rose from 26% to 67% in twelve months. Its High Bandwidth Flash, co-developed with SK hynix and targeting 8-16x HBM's capacity at a fraction of the cost, would reprice the whole company again if it ships in H2 2026. x.com 

Sandisk benefits because AI needs more storage, and long-term customer commitments could make NAND demand and pricing more predictable. x.com 

Sandisk's growth is coming entirely from higher prices, not more bits shipped, which makes it hard to sustain. Revenue grew 97% quarter over quarter as almost every hyperscaler raised capex to cover rising prices. Its roughly 80% gross margin is excessive and customers resent it; as long as demand far exceeds supply it can keep both, but supply eventually catches up and margins will erode. The open questions are how long new fabs take and whether Sandisk or rivals add the supply. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more