Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries remain under pressure from historic AI borrowing and hot price gauges, even as the long end eases from 2002 highs. The AI sector has raised about $500 billion of debt in nine months, a quarter of all corporate issuance, and Goldman Sachs sees $1.2 trillion in 2027. Monday's ISM services prices-paid gauge hit its highest in over four years, and a December Fed hike is still largely priced. The 10-year back above 5.35% would end the relief; Brent under $97 would extend it. … Show more

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields are rising on inflation and fiscal budgets. The 30-year yield is at its highest since before the 2007 financial crisis, and within weeks the headlines could read highest since 2004. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields are anchored by fiscal policy, not the Fed, so without a credible budget plan bond buyers keep pushing them higher. Moving holdings to the short end turns Treasuries into quasi-money T-bills, which adds to inflation and lifts the whole curve. Ray Dalio says Japan selling US bonds, long-end yields at new highs with a weaker dollar, and Scott Bessent's limited buyback plan fit his template for how countries go broke. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields need to stay high because megacap tech companies now compete for bond buyers. Oracle bonds yield over 8%, Meta's over 7%, and Google sold a 10x-oversubscribed 100-year sterling bond above 6%, while hyperscaler issuance is surging from $35B toward $200B. Megacaps are becoming as creditworthy as governments, making this a new paradigm of persistent competition, and Warsh appears to agree hyperscaler debt plays a role. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com