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Oliver | MMMT Wealth

Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

12 Aug, 02:55Latest

Aeva could triple to about $78 a share by 2029 as its new optical-source business adds to its LiDAR revenue. Management guides to millions of near-packaged optics units for a major hyperscaler, which could mean $300M of revenue by 2029 as volumes ramp in 2028, on top of the roughly $522M analysts expect from perception. Risking combined revenue at 80%, about $657M, a 12x sales multiple like optical peers gives $7.8B, assuming dilution to about 100M shares from SBC, raises and warrants. x.com

AEVA

7 Aug, 13:26

Aeva could be one of the best venture-style bets because a new optical-engine business may derisk its unprofitable 4D LiDAR economics. It signed a joint development deal with a leading high-speed optical engine provider to supply near-packaged optics for a major hyperscaler, with initial volumes possibly in 2027. Management expects multiple millions of units a year from 2028, worth multiple hundreds of millions of dollars annually at 40%-plus EBITDA margins, compelling at a $1.8B market cap. x.com

AEVA

Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

29 Oct

AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics' possible 2028 revenue makes even a 100% takeover premium too small if it delivers on 2027-28 expectations. Revenue of $6-8B in calendar 2028 at an illustrative 8x multiple would imply about $56B in market value, versus $7B today. That is the upside worth holding out for. x.com

Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

19 Oct

AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics looks undervalued if its capacity converts into the modeled revenue ramp. From disclosed capacity, quarterly revenue could rise from $858M in Q1 2027 to $1.89B in Q4 and $2.14B in Q1 2028, against a $6.8B market cap. A $7.5B annualized exit rate in 2027 at 40% gross margins would make an unchanged valuation surprising. Lumentum's capacity agreements into 2030-31 suggest demand may last beyond 2027-28, but execution risk remains. x.com

Stone Fox Capital

Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital

6 Aug

AEVA

Aeva Technologies' new hyperscaler optical connectivity deal raises risk rather than removing it. The multi-hundred-million-dollar deal faces hurdles before ramping in the second half of 2027, and it is a new product category for a company with $6M of quarterly revenue. The stock has again hit resistance around $28. x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

3 Jul

AEVA

Aeva is shifting from concept stock to execution story, and a large production design win with an unnamed top-10 European passenger OEM is the key catalyst. Its 4D FMCW lidar measures per-point velocity as well as position, resists glare and interference, and could extend into silicon photonic AI data center interconnects. Deployments in industrial, trucking (Daimler, Bendix) and smart cities diversify revenue, and a $115 million June raise removes insolvency or dilution risk for 18-24 months. … Show more

Gabz

Stock & Crypto Trader, SuperTrend Indicator Owner

6 Aug

AEVA

Aeva's optical connectivity launch and a new hyperscaler deal set the stage for major revenue growth in 2027. x.com

Chris

Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups

15 Jun

AEVA

Aeva Technologies, a next-generation sensing play for vehicles, robotics, industrial automation and infrastructure dubbed Ouster 2.0, has an asymmetric technical setup. On the daily chart it broke its downtrend line, shook out weak hands and reclaimed the key 0.5 Fibonacci level. Prior highs near $39 are the next stop; clearing them projects to roughly $57-$69, possibly by summer's end. Weekly price just reclaimed the cloud for the first time since early 2025; last time it ran 700%. x.com

VanquishTrader

Options Prop Trading Firm

25 Sep

CRDO

Credo is one of the cheapest AI growth stocks, trading around 26x forward earnings after a hard correction while revenue grew 115% to $479M and full-year growth is guided above 85%. Margin worries mostly reflect DustPhotonics amortization and stock comp; non-GAAP gross margin held near 68%. DustPhotonics adds a second engine in optics, with over $600M expected this year, and Credo's low-laser designs can ship through the laser shortage. One customer at about a third of revenue is the main risk. … Show more

Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

6 Aug

AEVA

Aeva is opening a new market as an optical source for co-packaged and near-packaged optics, backed by a hyperscaler program. It signed a joint development agreement with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027 and a production ramp in 2028, using its existing high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain for external and on-chip light sources. That is also a positive read-through for upstream laser supplier Sivers. x.com

Jeff Pu

Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities

2 Sep

CRDO

Credo's growth rides surging AI interconnect demand, and management expects revenue to grow more than 85% in FY27. F1Q27 revenue rose 115% to $479 million, EPS of $1.20 slightly beat, and F2Q27 guidance is $525-535 million. Active electrical cables remain the near-term engine as adoption broadens across hyperscalers and neoclouds; FY27 optical revenue is still expected above $600 million, though a higher optical mix dilutes gross margin. The $227 target rests on 20x FY28 EPS of $11.40. x.com

Jason Luongo

Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies

8 Sep

CRDO

Credo's 45% drop from its high was about customer concentration and valuation, not demand, making it a great long-term buy. The latest quarter beat on revenue and guidance: revenue grew 115% to $479M, a seventh straight quarter of triple-digit growth, and management guided to more than 85% growth for the fiscal year. Optical revenue is targeted to pass $600M this year, on top of the AEC business five hyperscalers already buy. x.com

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