Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Aeva is opening a new market as an optical source for co-packaged and near-packaged optics, backed by a hyperscaler program. It signed a joint development agreement with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027 and a production ramp in 2028, using its existing high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain for external and on-chip light sources. That is also a positive read-through for upstream laser supplier Sivers. x.comÂ
Aeva is a long for 4D physical AI and world models, specifically humanoids rather than the trucking and defense uses usually cited. LG invested $50M in Aeva to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing humanoids, and LG supplies vision to Boston Dynamics. Sivers Photonics, the likely CW laser supplier for that lidar, plausibly maps through Aeva and LG into Boston Dynamics' Atlas supply chain, a link few have mapped. x.com x.comÂ
Aeva's optical connectivity launch and a new hyperscaler deal set the stage for major revenue growth in 2027. x.comÂ
Aeva is shifting from concept stock to execution story, and a large production design win with an unnamed top-10 European passenger OEM is the key catalyst. Its 4D FMCW lidar measures per-point velocity as well as position, resists glare and interference, and could extend into silicon photonic AI data center interconnects. Deployments in industrial, trucking (Daimler, Bendix) and smart cities diversify revenue, and a $115 million June raise removes insolvency or dilution risk for 18-24 months. … Show more
Aeva Technologies' new hyperscaler optical connectivity deal raises risk rather than removing it. The multi-hundred-million-dollar deal faces hurdles before ramping in the second half of 2027, and it is a new product category for a company with $6M of quarterly revenue. The stock has again hit resistance around $28. x.comÂ
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.comÂ
Aeva Technologies matters because LiDAR is the eyes of physical AI, letting robots perceive, map and understand the world while semiconductors act as its brains. Aeva is expanding beyond automotive into industrial sensing and smart infrastructure and is backed by Nvidia. It is also a small cap with elevated short interest, and its recent breakout VWAP held during the pullback to the 21-day EMA. x.comÂ
Ouster and Aeva have each doubled in a year on the story that humanoid robots need LiDAR, but no link in that chain looks able to hold its price once capacity catches up. Omdia puts total humanoid LiDAR demand near 400,000 units by 2030, while Hesai alone is scaling toward 4 million units a year in 2026, and Tesla Optimus and Figure 03 rely on cameras. The two names making real money are Chinese. Ouster's best argument is its Stereolabs hedge if cameras win. x.com x.comÂ
Lumentum remains an AI laser bottleneck beneficiary: NVIDIA put $2B into the company in March for capacity and access rights to its lasers. A major AI buyer committing capital upfront points to scarce laser supply. x.comÂ
Networking is the next AI hardware trade after memory, whose share of rack value rose from 15% to 35%. Optics is moving inside the server, as Nvidia's Feynman architecture builds in co-packaged optics and silicon photonics. Scale-across networking could grow 30% a year just linking existing data centers, as inference moves closer to users and training spreads across sites. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO said it can meet only 30% of expected 2027 demand and sees optics tighter than memory. x.comÂ
Optics is the next big opportunity in AI hardware, with a 2-3 year runway of incremental demand as it spreads from scale-out beyond the data center to links between data centers from 2026 and inside servers from 2028. Lumentum is best positioned because current tightness is in lasers rather than transceivers. Coherent has a promising 6-inch expansion, though there is pushback on whether it adds to margins. Applied Optoelectronics expanded capacity most aggressively, so its bet is on execution. … Show more
Coherent is a structural bet on the data center shift from chips to connectivity, where optical components are now the bottleneck. Hyperscaler capex is forecast up 36% in 2026, and AI infrastructure spending is strategic necessity that won't be deferred in a recession. Nvidia's $2 billion investment locks in optical supply and gives Coherent revenue visibility through the decade. Its S&P 500 inclusion comes while the market prices a recession, setting up a repricing over the next 12 months. … Show more
