Peter DiCarlo
Smart-Money Trader, Mechanical Trading Systems & Education
POET Technologies' momentum is turning up, with whale accumulation climbing to 67.01%. A bullish candle printed on June 16, but the signal only fully plays out on a close above $15.08, while a close below $12.84 invalidates it. Momentum bars at $13.9 and $15.3 are key resistance, and breaking above them could trigger stronger upside. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' setup remains intact despite a 9% weekly drop on good news, and Jim Cramer's call four months ago that it was losing too much money has proven wrong. Since then it raised $150 million, won a Lightwave Innovation Award, partnered with LITEON and signed a 1.6T AI transceiver deal with Lessengers. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' Lumilens deal looks weak because Lumilens lacks the cash to pay for its purchase orders and needs POET's stock to soar to cash out. Lumilens has nothing in an ultra-competitive optics sector with China. Claims of billions in orders are false; any Amazon order depends on executing several steps first, while Coherent sells about $5B of optics after 30+ years with access to fabs, lasers and ICs. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is still very early in its growth. Revenue grew 112% year over year with six straight quarters of sequential growth, and it is showcasing new laser light source technology for AI interconnects this week. It is one worth being patient with. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is shifting from R&D to execution. Q4 earnings showed 10x year-over-year revenue growth with $430 million in cash. A $5 million-plus production order for POET Infinity optical engines is confirmed, and the company targets more than 30,000 engine shipments in 2026, with the 800G ramp starting in Q3. x.comÂ
It is time to fully let go of POET after news of a new equity raise. @ganziboy11, reporting the raise, notes that POET's technology may be good but the company's approach looks odd. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET Technologies has several catalysts that could collapse its roughly 1,000x price-to-sales multiple and force an institutional rerating. Management targets over 30,000 Infinity optical engine shipments in 2026, the shift from lab demo to commercial revenue. It is co-developing 400G-1.6T modules with LITEON and Lessengers for AI data centers. Redomiciling to the US removes PFIC tax risk that suppressed US institutional ownership, while $430M of cash funds a Malaysia manufacturing ramp. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' rally is incredibly fragile after Marvell canceled all purchase orders tied to Celestial AI, including initial production orders, per @wallstengine. POET says the cancellation stems from alleged confidentiality breaches and that it still serves other customers, including a separate $5M order. x.comÂ
POET Technologies will likely dilute shareholders soon because it desperately needs to raise cash. That comes after an 80% three-day rally sparked by its CTO confirming an order from Celestial AI. x.comÂ