Tesla's robotaxi business will add little to 2027 revenue: even a near-miraculous fleet of 50,000 by end-2027 would bring only about $1 billion. Politicians will work to slow robotaxi adoption even after safety is undeniable, and each robotaxi needs a city license. Net margins of 80-85% are unrealistic given electricity, wear and tear, cleaning and infrastructure costs; about 50% gross margin and a 25% contribution to net profit is the best case. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber's ride-hail market will stay tiny until the cost per mile falls from about $3 toward personal-car cost, roughly 77 cents per AAA, and human-driven ride-hail cannot get there at scale. Uber is under 1% of US urban miles, per ARK Invest. @RZ_GreatLakes notes over two-thirds of Uber mileage sits in under 1.5% of US land area. Tesla is the only credible path to profitable national scale at or below that price, and rides near 25 cents a mile would explode the market. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla isn't a buy yet because the stock, at over 300x trailing earnings, already prices in Robotaxi success that Cybercab hasn't proven at scale. Cybercab began rides in Austin, but about 45 of roughly 420 Tesla autonomous vehicles in Texas only show the cars can run. Order volumes, intervention and accident rates and per-car profit are undisclosed, NHTSA is still reviewing safety, and Q2 operating margin was 1.4% with -$1.1B free cash flow. Approval, fleet growth and unit economics are key. … Show more

Uber will not exist in a decade, and likely sooner, because it cannot compete with Tesla's Cybercab, a product that is half the price, safer, and will only get cheaper and safer. Riding alone in a personal Cybercab that doubles as an entertainment space beats getting into a car with a stranger. Tesla is beginning to mass-produce a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals; now it is just a matter of scaling, which takes time. x.com  x.com 

Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Uber and Lyft are finished because Tesla's Cybercab is priced 40-50% below Waymo, Uber and Lyft. It also offers a better customer experience with higher margins. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com