Noah
Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities
Tesla is the imposter in the Magnificent 7: a company with roughly 0% growth demanding about 400 times earnings. Even on forward estimates the P/E sits around 208, not the 73x cited by @des8253105, who blamed the trailing multiple on lost regulatory credits and tariff-related inventory writedowns. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla is the most overvalued stock on earth, with its multiple soaring while the business has stalled. Over the last three years revenue growth has been 0% annually, earnings have repeatedly missed, profit margin has fallen from 15% to 3% and 50,000 cars sit unsold. Meanwhile its P/E has risen from 34x to 365x, a tenfold multiple for the same company. x.comÂ
Tesla trades in another universe among the Magnificent 7, at 190x forward earnings and a 7.0x PEG. By comparison, Nvidia looks expensive at 25x but is the cheapest on PEG at 0.6x, with Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft between 0.9x and 1.6x and Apple at 3.2x. x.comÂ
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
Tesla trades at about 200x forward earnings, a bubble valuation that stands out against the rest of the Magnificent Seven, which per @DividendTalks now trade at 20-29x. x.comÂ
The Magnificent Seven's growth, fortress balance sheets and central role in the AI buildout now come at multiples that finally make sense. They have barely bent when high-beta names lose 10% in a session; that resilience makes their valuations down here one of the better opportunities in this market. x.comÂ
Seven stocks trade at forward P/Es far above the S&P 500's roughly 22x, leaving little room for disappointment. Tesla, at 186x, needs Robotaxi and Optimus to deliver. SpaceX, at about 108x, is valued near $2T on about $23B of sales. Arm, at 219x, already prices in heavy AI growth. Palantir, at 81x and 66x sales, can't afford slower growth. Intel, at 52x, prices in a foundry turnaround before profits. CrowdStrike, at 172x, and Palo Alto Networks, at 80x, are great businesses at huge premiums. … Show more
Tesla's valuation is gradually starting to matter, with shares at 140 times a 2027 non-GAAP EPS consensus that likely gets cut. The stock fell 4% after a gross margin and EPS miss. Many fans reflexively buy post-earnings drops no matter the results, which creates opportunities. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Magnificent Seven's recent weakness is a prime buying opportunity, because S&P 500 tech earnings forecasts have kept surging despite the war. The group has shown serious resilience through volatility, and the broader tech sector keeps proving its strength. x.comÂ
Alphabet's vertical integration and moat make its current valuation attractive. Its forward P/E is 19.78, below the 22.51 median shown since 2019. Alphabet is also valued below Tesla and SpaceX combined, despite the chart showing Google's quarterly revenue far exceeding theirs; that comparison does not add up. x.com x.comÂ
