The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
SpaceX is overvalued at $2.05 trillion, about $1 trillion more than it should be, so the risks far outweigh the reward for now. Newcomers asking about the IPO have no clue about valuations and risk becoming bag holders. It is not cheap and not a buy, but it will be once it returns to fair value in 6-9 months; any push to $200 would be a sell, and $65 within nine months would be no surprise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's $2.2 trillion valuation is hard to justify next to Amazon's $2.7 trillion. SpaceX has $23 billion of revenue and is losing money, while Amazon has $775 billion and is printing cash with improving margins. Claims that SpaceX has a faster path to $1.5 trillion in revenue have no chance. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is insanely overvalued. It is valued at $2.8 trillion, above Amazon's $2.65 trillion, on $19 billion of revenue and a $5 billion net loss, against Amazon's $743 billion of revenue and $91 billion of net income. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.comÂ
SpaceX's addressable market cannot expand without limit because global income bounds customer spending. Even after a roughly $2B revenue beat, its $2T valuation is 17x revenue even if the annualized figure is doubled. x.comÂ
SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.comÂ
SpaceX's neocloud-driven valuation is vulnerable to short-notice compute contract exits. Losing contracts with 90-day out clauses could cut $500B from its valuation; at least one out clause appears to be coming in 2027 rather than 2029. Neocloud expectations drive 80% of its current valuation, despite earlier fundraising on Starlink, reusable rockets and Mars. What happened to Amazon in 2000-02 is about to happen to SpaceX by 2030-32. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is extremely overvalued and keeps running for no reason, with no material consumer product other than Starlink, while Tesla trades sideways. x.com x.comÂ