Mr. Misunderstood
Long-Term Investor, Misunderstood Businesses & Asymmetric Upside
SpaceX's $2.2 trillion valuation is hard to justify next to Amazon's $2.7 trillion. SpaceX has $23 billion of revenue and is losing money, while Amazon has $775 billion and is printing cash with improving margins. Claims that SpaceX has a faster path to $1.5 trillion in revenue have no chance. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is now valued above Amazon on a sliver of its revenue: $19 billion versus Amazon's $743 billion, and Amazon itself looks undervalued here. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's earnings are nothing phenomenal against its $2 trillion valuation. Its P/E is 2,000 and P/S is 170, with $4.4 billion in profits after losing that much in Q1 2026; another $2 trillion company makes $50-60 billion in net profit. x.comÂ
SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.comÂ
SpaceX's blowout earnings make its somewhat lofty valuation deserved. Elon Musk said it could exit 2027 at $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue, an ambitious forecast that looks achievable for SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.comÂ
SpaceX's addressable market cannot expand without limit because global income bounds customer spending. Even after a roughly $2B revenue beat, its $2T valuation is 17x revenue even if the annualized figure is doubled. x.comÂ
SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's capital-intensive super-intelligence business makes its $2 trillion valuation hard to justify. At a reported 6% SI margin, even doubling that margin would require roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue to make the math work, about 18 times current quarterly revenue annualized. The extraordinary outcome is already priced in. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ