Mindset for Money
CPA, Financial Analyst, Former Big Four Auditor
Dave's core model is already very profitable, at 44% adjusted EBITDA margins, and simply needs scale in short-term liquidity, one of the largest addressable markets in the US and a need that isn't going away. Members grew 17% and originations 27% while delinquencies improved, all without much expansion into new products. Even 20% revenue growth from here could support a 10x over the next decade. x.comÂ
SoFi's improving credit and fee mix support its long-term earnings case. Q3 originations hit $16.9B; estimated all-in annualized personal-loan charge-offs, excluding delinquent sales, fell 80 bps YoY to 3.4%. Fee revenue hit $571M, or 42% of total. Management says current capital and organic generation can fund 2027 growth without a raise. $100 a share is aggressive on 2027 earnings; a multi-year path needs 25-40% revenue growth, wider margins and credit discipline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Dave looks like a long-term winner because it is relentlessly compounding earnings. EPS swung from -$4.07 in 2023 to $16.71 in 2026, with $27.83 expected for 2028. x.comÂ
Dave trades at a premium despite looking less exciting and less stable than SoFi or Chime, a case of the market chasing momentum and charts over fundamentals. SoFi is the best of the three, with nearly twice their growth and profitability. x.comÂ
SoFi's conservative 2027 guide leaves room to beat expectations, barring a macro shock. Its $6.4B revenue target is 4.2% above consensus and $0.90 EPS target is $0.08 ahead; Q3 revenue grew 44.5% and net margin widened 280 basis points year over year. Cross-selling is gaining traction, management says no capital raise is needed through 2027, and CEO Anthony Noto says he is as confident in durable growth at high rates as at low rates. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Dave has the best valuation among online banking and consumer lending peers such as Affirm, SoFi and Ally, and its large base sets it up for a big breakout: the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. x.comÂ
Dave looks cheap after earnings, one of the names still growing fast at a low multiple. Plenty still trades below 20x adjusted EBITDA with more than 30% growth, or 30x with more than 40% growth, and Dave fits that screen alongside AppLovin and Celestica, although expectations for all three have been very high. x.comÂ
Falling yields and rising bonds should make rate-sensitive fintech names like Dave, Sezzle and Affirm rip. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
Nu Holdings trades at only 12x forward earnings despite strong growth, expanding profitability and operating leverage across its businesses and products. It costs under $1 to serve a customer, with no branches, paperwork or hidden fees; it reached 130+ million customers in eleven years and runs a 20% efficiency ratio versus 55% for the average bank. Per @JonahLupton, Q2 revenue rose 50% and net income 67%; he puts it near 11.2x next-twelve-month EPS with fair value of $24-28 per share. x.com … Show more
SoFi's post-earnings selloff is a gift after 40% top-line and 60% bottom-line growth, as the one and only best-in-class neobank. At about 5.5x sales and a PEG below 1, it would be worth buying much more at $14 or $12. The negatives: contribution-margin compression in Financial Services, defaults and reserves still ticking up, and a technology segment that is now dead weight. SoFi also needs buy now, pay later to stay competitive. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
