Anand
AI Engineer, Thematic Stock & Crypto Trader, Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Dave has the best valuation among online banking and consumer lending peers such as Affirm, SoFi and Ally, and its large base sets it up for a big breakout: the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. x.comÂ
SoFi has been losing market share for months, which is why Dave and Ally are better plays. Per Investor's Business Daily, SoFi stock is falling even though its earnings doubled. x.comÂ
Dave trades at a premium despite looking less exciting and less stable than SoFi or Chime, a case of the market chasing momentum and charts over fundamentals. SoFi is the best of the three, with nearly twice their growth and profitability. x.comÂ
Fintech stocks are the counterintuitive trade as rates break out, rather than the usual oil and copper. Treasury yields are rising, but credit spreads are falling, which helps fintechs, while wider treasury spreads help banks. x.com x.comÂ
A revised group of 12 stocks is positioned for the next move: AMD from AI accelerators and data-center CPUs; Netflix, Spotify and Airbnb from expanding platforms; Affirm from checkout integrations; Axon and IonQ from law-enforcement and quantum technology; Eaton and Applied Digital from AI infrastructure; Cloudflare from network services, AppLovin from its high-margin ad engine, and Zeta from data-driven marketing. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Affirm looks a bit expensive here, with fair value around $70 to $80, even though buy now, pay later should keep taking share from traditional credit cards. BNPL limits borrowing to when it is needed and cuts off borrowers who do not repay, lowering risk for both user and lender, unlike credit cards with large limits. Affirm is growing over 35%, and its balance account pays over 3% interest through a linked debit card that can also use BNPL. x.comÂ
Fintech tops the list of over-punished sectors likely to offer some of the best opportunities over the next few years. Its 50-70% drawdowns reflect a sentiment and macro reset, not a fundamentals collapse, as higher rates, cooler retail trading and a shift to safer assets crushed multiples for SoFi, Robinhood, Affirm, Coinbase, Sezzle and PayPal. Meanwhile SoFi expects 30%+ revenue growth, Robinhood's engagement is rebounding and PayPal generates massive free cash flow. Not every name will win. … Show more
A clearing of the gloomy environment will make lending stocks the next multibaggers. SoFi, Upstart and Klarna are down now, much as many cybersecurity stocks were before rising two- to fourfold in under six months. Better Home & Finance (-75% YTD), LendingTree (-55%) and Rocket (-47%) join them among lending names whose current prices will look dirt cheap in 2028-2029. x.com x.comÂ
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.comÂ
Dave's core model is already very profitable, at 44% adjusted EBITDA margins, and simply needs scale in short-term liquidity, one of the largest addressable markets in the US and a need that isn't going away. Members grew 17% and originations 27% while delinquencies improved, all without much expansion into new products. Even 20% revenue growth from here could support a 10x over the next decade. x.comÂ