Brian G
Engineer & CFA, Trend-Based Market Analysis
Fintech tops the list of over-punished sectors likely to offer some of the best opportunities over the next few years. Its 50-70% drawdowns reflect a sentiment and macro reset, not a fundamentals collapse, as higher rates, cooler retail trading and a shift to safer assets crushed multiples for SoFi, Robinhood, Affirm, Coinbase, Sezzle and PayPal. Meanwhile SoFi expects 30%+ revenue growth, Robinhood's engagement is rebounding and PayPal generates massive free cash flow. Not every name will win. … Show more
SoFi and fintech are setting up well, with five months of accumulation and the price holding $15 support. Once the market senses falling yields and rate cuts, SoFi could be drawn to its all-time high and $47 within the next two to three years. x.comÂ
Falling yields and rising bonds should make rate-sensitive fintech names like Dave, Sezzle and Affirm rip. x.comÂ
Fintech is investing while biotech is gambling: roughly 90% of biotechs fail versus 10% of fintechs. Most fintechs are growing 25-30% or more yet trade at record-low valuations, while biotech is already up 90% and in a bubble driven by buyout mania. x.comÂ
SoFi should be rising, not falling, because high bond yields favor financial stocks. Its banking business and other products are strong enough to be real competition for brick-and-mortar banks, which may be why big banks dislike it, though its trading platform still needs a lot of work. x.com x.comÂ
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.comÂ
A clearing of the gloomy environment will make lending stocks the next multibaggers. SoFi, Upstart and Klarna are down now, much as many cybersecurity stocks were before rising two- to fourfold in under six months. Better Home & Finance (-75% YTD), LendingTree (-55%) and Rocket (-47%) join them among lending names whose current prices will look dirt cheap in 2028-2029. x.com x.comÂ
Rising long-term yields threaten SoFi and other fintechs. The US 10-year yield is at its highest in about 30 years, and 10-year yields in Japan, Germany and the UK are also at highs, with Japan's at 2.91%, the highest since 1996. Klarna is the first casualty of this uncertainty, and it will hit SoFi and every other fintech. x.comÂ
Robinhood is the future of finance, banking and credit cards, because no other fintech is innovating as fast. It is also founder-led. x.comÂ
SoFi is shaping up as an opportunity like Robinhood's run from the $40s to $100 a year ago, though likely smaller, and the broader fintech group, Robinhood included, should run too. SoFi's weekly and monthly base and a macro environment favorable to fintech and metals support the setup. SoFi is slightly favored because a breakout after one to two years of stagnation could trigger FOMO, and markets often overextend such breakouts and react extra optimistically to positive news. x.com x.com x.comÂ