Nike is starting to feel like it could become the next BlackBerry or Kodak because other sneakers are simply better and it has failed to innovate. At a 5,000-person charity 10k in Northport, Long Island, nobody wore Nike. These are mostly casual runners, not serious ones, and regular people who walk, run and play casual sports make up nearly all of the sneaker market. Great brands always have tough times, but the decline is about more than going woke. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike destroyed its brand with its direct-to-consumer push during Covid, one of the dumbest strategic mistakes by any megacap. Pulling Nike shoes from stores let consumers try On, Asics, Hoka, New Balance and others. Nike is not dead, but it may not be able to put the genie back in the bottle. Its latest report, per @HeyAlvaAI, showed Nike Direct sales down 8%, Greater China down 22% and a forecast high-single-digit revenue decline for the year. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's decline comes from products that lost their edge while competitors caught up. It focused on campaigns, and nobody remembers the last Nike shoe that mattered; On and Hoka filled the gap, and On signing Mbappé shows who is gaining. Sales are flat, earnings are shrinking, and China sales fell 26%. At $33 the stock is cheap versus history, but the turnaround needs proof first. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike may turn, but On and Hoka appear to be widening their moats, and cleaner economics with more durable advantages are preferable. Nike's FAST Graphs chart is one of the ugliest in a while, raising the question of how much of its moat remains. Possible catalysts are product innovation, a wholesale recovery, China stabilization and cost savings. On is taking market share, and street observation in New York showed On and Hoka standing out on people's feet. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike is one successful marketing campaign away from a full turnaround. Per @TheLongInvest, it is among the most hated stocks, deep below its 200-month moving average at a 12-year low, with insiders including Tim Cook buying, a 4% dividend and one of the world's strongest brands. x.com 

Nike, like other apparel makers, is uninvestable because a durable moat is near impossible in this business. Consumer preferences keep changing, requiring constant new marketing to keep people excited, and making a physical product leaves an inherently low-margin business with little long-term pricing power. A major turnaround is possible, but the business model gives no confidence in its long-term strength. x.com 

Nike's downside is likely not over even at this price because the business is shrinking with no credible turnaround plan. Brands owned by influencers and celebrities are taking share, white-label manufacturing adds pressure while Nike lacks innovation, and its digital strategy has been a disaster. A turnaround needs a radical shift in strategy and operations, not the incremental changes now being promised. x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike is a brand that lost discipline and vision and is now paying for it, with another bad year guided. Revenue fell 4%, with China down 26% and Europe 5%, and Nike expects 2027 revenue to drop another 7-9% with profit falling more. After flooding the market with Jordans and lifestyle sneakers, it is cutting supply to restore scarcity and pricing power and cutting $2.5B of costs by 2031, short-term pain in hope of long-term brand health. x.com