Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com 

Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.com 

Strategy shares and STRC will do fine as bitcoin rises, but the financial engineering is too complex. As bitcoin climbs, Strategy should pay off debt, use its bitcoin as collateral for the cheapest capital and buy more, a simpler, more antifragile structure the market could trust and that would ease S&P inclusion. Instead it has too many knobs, and such complexity sometimes blows up. A share sale that cut the stock 3% shows the dilution drag that retiring preferreds and debt would end. x.com  … Show more

Strategy needs to generate revenue, such as yield on its bitcoin, to reduce its reliance on diluting common shareholders. It has bought no bitcoin for 35 days even as bitcoin rose, while buying back STRC preferred below par. Dilution was the only option for a long time, but it cannot remain the model. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's model of lending against bitcoin holds up because a rising reserve asset sets a hurdle for investment, not a prohibition. If bitcoin rises 20% and an enterprise turns $100 into $140, it still grows wealth in bitcoin terms by 16.7%. The hurdle also falls as bitcoin matures, like any asset whose prospective return drops as its price rises. From 2013 through 2025, simply holding bitcoin beat almost any effort, but early adoption is a poor discount rate for every future investment. x.com 

Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com  … Show more

Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com  x.com