Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Personal AI agents such as Meta Muse could cut Netflix subscriptions that people forgot they were paying for. Millions will be using such agents over the next few months, and at some point most will probably have them comb through subscriptions to cut fluff and save money. At least 25% of Netflix payers likely either don't know they are paying or forgot, and would cancel. x.comÂ
Netflix's six straight botched earnings reports undermine its stock. Its co-CEOs should go; shares are at a two-year low and down 60% since its involvement in the Paramount deal and acquisition. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fending off Apple, Disney, Amazon and others will prevent Netflix from ever returning capital to shareholders. The obsession with its stock is hard to understand. x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix's stock and content quality look poor, pointing to a slow grind lower. x.comÂ
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.comÂ
AI, networks and power give these 12 stocks some of the decade's biggest tailwinds. Micron is one of three big HBM makers; Samsara connects fleets; IonQ builds quantum computers; Ciena supplies optics; GE Vernova and Eaton serve power demand; Dell ships AI servers. Netflix, the largest paid streamer, adds ads; Coupang, Korea's largest e-commerce platform, delivers same-day; Airbnb, the largest short-term rental marketplace, adds services; Arm enters data centers; CrowdStrike secures enterprises. … Show more
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's competition and valuation leave its risk/reward well behind other opportunities. It competes with Amazon, Disney, Apple and YouTube, while trading at about 20x next-twelve-month earnings for roughly 14% annual EPS growth over the next few years. It is mostly a great company, but these numbers do not make it a multibagger. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's incredibly solid business and already-corrected stock offer great protection if the market crashes. x.comÂ
If Netflix's engagement keeps declining, it will be able to charge less over the long term even if reduced use has not stopped subscriptions yet. Netflix's discoverability is terrible; it keeps showing the same options. x.com x.comÂ