Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's human conversations are gaining value as AI content proliferates, supporting advertiser spending and AI data licensing. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, with margins in the 40s, but US user growth slowed to 6%. Advertisers are paying more each quarter and AI labs pay for Reddit's data. Overweight; $200 target. x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's pullback below $150 on insider-selling headlines is not a fundamental shift, as monetization is accelerating faster than user growth. Q1 2026 revenue grew 69% to $663 million with $204 million of net income, a 31% margin, and EPS of $1.01 was 7x a year earlier. Daily active users rose 17% to 126.8 million while ARPU jumped 44% to $5.23. AI data licensing deals with Google and OpenAI are a higher-margin second engine, projected to reach $400 million a year by 2027. x.com 

Reddit is cheaper now than in 2025 even though its revenue has nearly doubled since then. x.com 

Reddit's share price is collapsing even as its fundamentals accelerate. Average revenue per US and international user is accelerating, growth is speeding up and the business is showing signs of operating leverage. x.com 

Reddit is one of the most compelling opportunities in the market, and today's worries about Google referrals and AI disruption will look like the moment to have bought. Investors fixated on search-referral risk and short-term user growth are missing exceptional financial performance: surging revenue, expanding margins and no debt. It trades at just 19x an estimated $1.7 billion of 2027 free cash flow, supporting a $315 target by early 2027. x.com