Coinvo Trading
Full-Time Trader, Public Trade Commentary
AMD could fall hard because its chart comes closer than any other to a 1:1 copy of the dot-com bubble peak, with valuations far too stretched. In 2000, stretched tech valuations crashed the entire market, and the same thing is happening now, with AMD among those tech stocks. This could end really badly. x.com
AMD is the textbook example of a stock with too much priced into its valuation: it delivered flawless earnings and still sold off. x.com
AMD is the last AI name left to crack on valuation and should fall below $200-$225, likely within 12-15 months. AI suppliers such as Arm, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Astera Labs are already getting smoked on valuations, while hyperscalers like Alphabet and Microsoft are being punished. x.com x.com
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.com
AMD may be the biggest asymmetry in semiconductors: a more than 2.5x valuation premium to NVIDIA for half the growth and no moat is hard to justify. When the market turns against AMD and AI momentum funds, the drop will come all at once and get nasty. x.com
AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com x.com
AMD could become a $20 trillion company within five years in a bull case where AI keeps accelerating beyond comprehension. x.com
AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com
AMD's fundamentals are very strong, but about 50x 2028 estimated earnings is a price that cannot be normalized for any company, under an investment philosophy that may be wrong. Per PrivPubInvestor, the stock rose from $450 to almost $650 in two weeks on CPU demand, analyst price-target hikes, new partnerships and the Helios rollout. x.com x.com
AMD's Multi-model Signal remains long through the CPI-driven AI selloff, treating the dip as a buying opportunity. Hot CPI revived rate fears, with the CoreWeave unwind adding to the broad decline; AMD fell 5.7% in one session. x.com
AMD, Arm, Marvell and ON Semiconductor are ultra overvalued and stretched on the monthly timeframe, with no real fundamental change in sight. Their current price ranges may prove good areas for positional shorts into October 2026, in a midterm election year. x.com
