Long-dated Treasuries remain under pressure from historic AI borrowing and hot price gauges, even as the long end eases from 2002 highs. The AI sector has raised about $500 billion of debt in nine months, a quarter of all corporate issuance, and Goldman Sachs sees $1.2 trillion in 2027. Monday's ISM services prices-paid gauge hit its highest in over four years, and a December Fed hike is still largely priced. The 10-year back above 5.35% would end the relief; Brent under $97 would extend it. … Show more

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look favorable as the rise in 10-year yields appears mostly over; inflation searches have peaked, and only 13 of 29 tracked commodities are above their 50-day averages. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are losing demand because an accelerating economy offers better opportunities than a 4% yield. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is rising sharply as data beats estimates. Yields are climbing while crude oil falls, so the move reflects growth rather than inflation fears, and the bond market is giving the Fed permission to hike. Treasuries, gold and defensive equities are slumping because no one wants safe havens in a risk-on market. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields have further to rise, because the government keeps announcing more long bonds, not fewer, even as demand for 30-year bonds at 5% is weak. 5% is not where it stops. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries stay pinned because the long end now prices deficits and issuance rather than the policy rate. Even when the Fed cuts the front end, term premium and supply keep the long bond down, which is why cuts have not helped. Per Charlie Bilello, the US bond market has been in drawdown for 71 months, by far the longest on record; bonds losing to inflation six years running is the debasement trade, and why hard assets keep getting bid. x.com  x.com