Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.comÂ
Azure's accelerating growth and better returns per capex dollar leave further upside on the table for Microsoft, the favored hyperscaler. Azure grew 48% versus 44-45% guidance, its fifth straight beat. The stock is holding eight-week EMA support, with the blue candle still intact. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft is probably the most entrenched software name in the market, making it the lower-risk way to bet against widespread bearishness on software. It should rebound, though the timing is unclear and beside the point; fundamentals several years out should be great. x.comÂ
Microsoft's delivery delays are affecting earnings, making other sources of returns look safer now. x.comÂ
Microsoft's record long-term institutional accumulation was the real signal: the largest monthly, weekly and daily volumes ever built up right at the bottom, and the expected short-term flush never came, not even a 10% decline. Short-term bearish speculation was a waste of time. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.comÂ
Microsoft is cheap but not a long-term holding, because it is not growing fast enough while Nvidia is cheaper, growing much faster and better positioned. Microsoft may be re-rating, but the backdrop could also push it to a 15x P/E, so for now it is only a tradable situation. x.comÂ
Never bet against Microsoft: in its history it has never been a poor capital allocator, and despite small mistakes it is an amazing corporate investor. The same holds for Google, despite criticism quoted by @firstadopter that supplying OpenAI and Anthropic with compute mortgages its future. x.comÂ