Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Dell is a bet on its founder, Michael Dell, leading the company, held specifically for its server business. Super Micro is not worth touching no matter how cheap, because its management can't be trusted; it has a good customer roster, including xAI's first Memphis data center, but that does not matter without trust in the people behind it. That view from almost a year ago still stands. x.comÂ
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.comÂ
Dell ranks among the best on buybacks and low stock-based compensation, with strong expansion in both profit margin and revenue. x.comÂ
Dell is still a hardware company with low pricing power and only an 18% margin profile, which the FOMO chasers now piling in overlook. The stock may still go higher. x.comÂ
Dell Technologies still has plenty of upside despite a scary-looking price run-up. Per Michael Dell, it just delivered the world's first working, liquid-cooled Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 server rack to CoreWeave. x.comÂ
Dell is positioned at the forefront of a multi-hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity with one of the industry's most complete end-to-end offerings, from servers, storage and networking to enterprise software. AI server orders in its ISG infrastructure business are accelerating, partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have deepened, and global enterprise and government procurement has improved order visibility. Its long-term compounding potential could be substantial. x.comÂ
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer should ride on Dell's results, since unlike Dell it has no legacy business, just the AI server business. x.comÂ
Dell should easily trade above $500 after a very strong Q2 FY27 report. Revenue rose about 58% to roughly $47B, AI server backlog hit a record of about $95B, FY27 revenue guidance rose by about $25B, and management now expects AI server revenue to triple this year rather than double. That the stock sat at morning lows after such results says a lot about the current state of the AI trade. x.com x.comÂ
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.comÂ
Dell Technologies is turning into one of the biggest AI infrastructure plays in the market, no longer just a PC company. It has massive AI server demand, NVIDIA partnerships and a record AI backlog, while governments race to build sovereign AI and enterprise AI capex accelerates. Trump is now publicly telling Americans to buy Dell, and his AI agenda centers on data centers and compute, with Dell in the middle of that trade. When he did the same with Intel, Intel rose 500%. x.comÂ
