Coinbase stands to gain as crypto gears up for a massive move very soon, with the breakout setup looking prime. x.com
Varun Takkar
Stock & Options Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading Community
Heavy put bets at $170 provide a positioning basis for Coinbase's $180 target by October 23. Shares are holding above that put wall; no chase. x.com
Coinbase participated in the crypto rebound's trading activity. Its spot volume rose about 41-50% month over month to roughly $61-64 billion, overtaking Bybit for third among top-tier spot exchanges. That counters AlphaTAEdgde's claim that the rebound's volume bypassed Coinbase. x.com
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.com
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.com
Coinbase is becoming much more than a crypto exchange, with USDC, derivatives, prediction markets, tokenization and Base. The chart supports it: the stock has built a massive seven-month Stage 1 base and reclaimed its 200-day moving average, and when it gets going it tends to move hard. x.com
The carnage in crypto could push Coinbase another leg lower and break its February lows, even though it is already down about 60% from its all-time high. Anecdotally, few people seem to use Coinbase anymore, with most turning to Kraken and Hyperliquid. x.com
Coinbase is a strong stock for running the options wheel strategy because crypto volatility produces massive premiums that pay well. Sizing correctly and staying disciplined are essential. x.com
Coinbase and Strategy amplify every move bitcoin and Ethereum make, making them the most asymmetric way to buy the crypto crash while the crowd sells. Their Wave 3 targets are $676 for Coinbase and $952 for Strategy. x.com
Coinbase is expensive against its cash earnings. At $184.53 it trades at 70x cash earnings and 62x next year's, while the industry usually gets 30x. Fair value is $78.24–$99.58, or 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the stock 85% above the high end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
Coinbase is sitting in a big smart-money discount zone with its bull structure still intact, making this the spot for a bounce and possibly the start of a new bull cycle. $3M of unusual call buying hit on the day. x.com