Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
Photonics leaders' demand now outruns supply into 2027-2028. Lumentum and Coherent each have $2B Nvidia deals, with Lumentum lasers sold out through 2028 and Coherent orders reaching 2028. AAOI demand exceeds capacity through mid-2027; Ciena has a record $7.7B backlog. Credo targets $600M of FY2027 optical revenue, POET has a $500M five-year framework, AXT's InP backlog tops $100M as capacity doubles, and Sivers' pipeline is up 77% YTD to about $799M. x.com
Photonics leaders have demand running ahead of supply well into 2027-2028. Nvidia put $2B into Lumentum, whose lasers are sold out deep into 2027, and Coherent has similar Nvidia capital and an AI optical backlog into 2028. Applied Optoelectronics' demand runs 20-40% above capacity. POET's optical interposer won a $50M order that could top $500M, Ciena's backlog hit records with raised guidance, and Credo targets over $600M of optical sales next year. x.com
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.com
Photonics stocks remain attractive as AI optical-component demand exceeds supply: Lumentum's CEO says the company cannot meet 70% of demand for some products through 2027 or 30% for others through 2028, with some components sold out into early 2029. The cited basket is LITE, MRVL, AAOI, COHR, SIVE and AEHR. x.com
The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com
Lumentum's AI-optics case gains longer supply visibility: CEO Michael Hurlston says capacity is effectively sold out through early 2029 and expects roughly 70% of demand for some products to go unmet through 2027; others could face roughly 30% unmet demand through 2028. Scarcity could support pricing, but earnings growth depends on capacity expansion and yield improvements translating into shipments, revenue and margins. x.com
Networking is the next AI hardware trade after memory, whose share of rack value rose from 15% to 35%. Optics is moving inside the server, as Nvidia's Feynman architecture builds in co-packaged optics and silicon photonics. Scale-across networking could grow 30% a year just linking existing data centers, as inference moves closer to users and training spreads across sites. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO said it can meet only 30% of expected 2027 demand and sees optics tighter than memory. x.com
Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com
Optical transceiver demand exceeds supply, and 1.6T lifts revenue per module for suppliers able to qualify capacity. Applied Optoelectronics raised at least $1.62B through 2026 ATMs; its last reported monthly capacity was 200,000 modules versus a year-end target above 650,000. Credo expects over $600M in FY2027 revenue across optical DSPs, PICs and modules, not modules alone. Shipments, yields and margins must prove out. Lumentum and Coherent already price in much expected growth. x.com
Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics remain buys amid AI optics demand: Lumentum's CEO said its AI optical parts are completely sold out through early 2029. x.com
Lumentum, AXT and Coherent face potential delays to CPO and 800V, and their charts started flopping as if the stocks knew ahead of time. Per @BULLOFBRITAIN, citing a SemiAnalysis report, CPO and 800V could be pushed back to 2028–29 while NPO potentially accelerates, with caution urged on names including Lumentum. x.com
Optical suppliers face demand beyond capacity, strengthening the sector's case for the coming months. Lumentum's CEO says it is effectively sold out through early 2029; Ciena says lead times limit growth, and Coherent cites constraints across nearly every product line. Applied Optoelectronics doubled its share count to expand capacity and meet demand. Soitec raised guidance twice this year; Marvell raised guidance and its 2030 TAM, while Broadcom sees 4x EPS by 2030 on visible demand. x.com
