Varun Takkar
Stock & Options Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading Community
Bitcoin is breaking out on historic regulatory clarity as the SEC proposes its Regulation Crypto Assets framework. Under Chairman Paul Atkins, the rules would end regulation by enforcement, give crypto assets clear legal paths to raise capital and add a conditional safe harbor. The Bitcoin ETF cut through its 50-day EMA on 138.44M shares of volume, a sign of institutional buying, with the 200-day EMA at 42.83 next. The midpoint between halvings has historically been the accumulation zone. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's higher time frames may be entering a major bullish trend, so a slip in the daily trend matters little, and smart money is accumulating. Bitcoin has bottomed after a double failed breakdown below its 2025 low followed by a reclaim and its first bullish trend since, which points to at least $100,000. This could become its largest bullish trend ever, given the largest institutional backing it has ever had. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's upside needs lower oil and inflation and stronger risk appetite; that macro shift has not arrived. IBIT holding 46.3 is a good sign, and its topping short-term cycle is not a deal killer. x.comÂ
Bitcoin ETF IBIT's whale accumulation at 30.2% remains too low for a sustained move higher. It is testing a new volatility hole at $43.30-$49.50; $48 must be cleared for acceleration, while $39.40 and $44.10 are near-term support. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's accelerating bull cycle should take it above $125,000 next year. Owning Strive shares alongside IBIT might be wise; Strive LEAPS bought while the stock is low should pay dividends. x.comÂ
Bitcoin options show near-term midterm hedging but more upside bets by late November and December. November 6 bets spanned $75.2K-$85.1K, with puts in greater demand and costing more; at the time checked, November 27 had 1.7 calls per put and December 25 had 1.5. A weekly close below $75K is not expected, and the base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around next April. x.com x.comÂ
The iShares Bitcoin Trust is a bet that liquidity turns before the tape shows it. Miners mint a fixed 450 BTC a day until 2028, and ETF inflows led by this fund routinely absorb multiples of that. Grayscale bleeds fees and MicroStrategy is a levered wrapper, while IBIT holds spot bitcoin 1:1 at a 0.25% fee with about $58B AUM. June's record outflows shook out the tourists. It has no earnings and is extremely volatile; the risk is long yields keep rising and liquidity never turns. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin has absorbed a week of bad news without budging, a sign of strength. Even a cringe-worthy Michael Saylor video couldn't bring it down, and Coinbase has nearly closed its post-earnings gap down. Bitcoin's average daily range has narrowed to about 2%, less than most utility companies, allowing tight risk on a historically volatile asset. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's breakout from a three-month base looks bullish, with a bull flag above the 200 EMA pointing to $82.5K in October and close to $100K by year-end. BlackRock's IBIT participated heavily in the move while the HODL ETF sold into it, a divergence worth watching to track any reversal. x.com x.comÂ
Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.comÂ