Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Gold royalty and streaming companies remain worth adding even with gold far above $3,200-3,700, because their valuations are low versus history and they can still generate alpha even if gold is unexciting over 3-5 years. Silver and rising industrial demand add support. Unlike miners, which are boom-bust, they earn from mines without operating them. Buying Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold, Osisko and Franco-Nevada is on hold after gold's recent jump. x.comÂ
Gold royalty and streaming companies such as Franco-Nevada, Triple Flag, Royal Gold, Or Royalties and Vox Royalty are the way to own gold, because they earn money from mines without operating them. Physical gold just keeps pace with inflation long term, while miners are boom-bust trades, not investments. With gold below its 200-day average and 27% off highs, these are worth adding to, with rising interest in their silver exposure. There is no gold price call; like insurance, they pay off later. x.comÂ
Royal Gold is a strong buy because it owns the landlord's position in gold rather than operating the business. It finances miners in exchange for royalties and streams, collecting cash flow while someone else does the hard work, with no labor costs, equipment or environmental liability, just margins. x.comÂ
Wheaton Precious Metals is UBS's clearest buy in a mining sell-off driven by the dollar and rates rather than fundamentals. Per UBS, gold, copper and mining stocks fell more than 20% as a stronger dollar and higher rate expectations overwhelmed the safe-haven bid. UBS also points to Wheaton's 70% volume growth path to 2030 and a 30% discount to its five-year EV/EBITDA. x.comÂ
Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold fit the case for owning hard assets, because the end game is very likely the dollar, along with the pound, the euro and other major fiat currencies, going much lower. Gold, platinum, silver and copper are the assets to hold against that. x.comÂ
Domestic precious-metal miners are favored, because as gold moves into its next leg up, things will get rough in some places and some governments will get greedy. @CandidMacro adds energy supply issues at mines in Mali and probably Australia. Favorites are Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, Endeavour Silver, Blackrock Silver and FGOVF. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold miners have further to fall because gold is acting as just another risk asset. Rising oil, rising yields and a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and the precious-metal miners. x.com x.comÂ
Gold miners, unlike gold itself, turn a higher gold price into compounding cash returns. On a path to $8,000 gold, margins would widen far beyond today's roughly $2,400 an ounce even if all-in sustaining costs rose a third to $2,650. Free cash flow per share is at a record of about $15.70, roughly tripled since 2024, and the industry is buying back stock rather than mines, a combination never seen before. Relative to the S&P 500, miners have never been cheaper, not in 2008, 2015 or 2020. x.com … Show more
Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com x.comÂ
Gold miners look like most of the damage is done: gold is down over $1,500 from its top and miners about 40%, with sentiment and positioning near capitulation. Gold's Daily Sentiment Index fell to 14% bullish, speculative open interest is below the late-2015 bottom, the miners' bullish percent index hit 0% and gold's RSI is the lowest since October 2023. Gold could still fall on Hormuz, dollar strength and seasonality, but Chinese buying, de-dollarization and miners' cash flows remain. x.comÂ
Gold miners, led by Newmont, stand to gain from 2026's rotation into hard assets as inflation stays entrenched. US CPI sits at 3.8%, nearly double the Fed's target, with energy up 18% and natural gas up 28% year over year, leaving cash and paper assets as losers and gold as the ultimate inflation hedge. Central banks in China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are expected to buy nearly 1,000 tons of gold this year. Newmont is the largest blue-chip gold miner on the planet. x.comÂ
