Cole Grinde
Stock & Options Investor, Dividends/Value/Fundamentals, Tesla
Ondas is a buy-the-dip opportunity as revenue explodes and the company turns profitable. H1 2026 revenue was $133.9 million, up 1,173% year over year, with net income of about $271.6 million, after GAAP losses every year from 2019 through 2025. TTM revenue is about $174 million, up from $50.7 million for all of 2025. x.comÂ
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas is being handpicked: government officials are directly signaling which companies to focus on. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas's rally on recent Trump administration news is the market catching up after months of chopping between $9 and $11. It has signed deals almost biweekly through 2026, a backlog the market under-reacted to. Fundamentals are phenomenal and the team executes well. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas is uniquely positioned to bring drone and autonomous technology to market, and doubling its revenue forecast reinforces that. Per Ondas, it raised its 2026 revenue target more than 2x to at least $375M and holds about $1.5B in cash to accelerate scale and strategic growth. x.comÂ
Ondas's premium purchase of distressed Airobotics and its later options award to former Airobotics chairman Ron Stern raise governance red flags. OurCrowd, where Stern was a partner, owned 19.6% of Airobotics. Ondas paid a 71% premium despite Airobotics warning it might not survive without financing. Stern received options equal to 3% of Ondas's outstanding shares, sold 2.68 million shares for $26.3 million in gross proceeds and resigned after 11 months. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas could have serious upside over the next few years if it delivers anywhere close to the 30%-40% portfolio growth its CEO Eric Brock expects. At current levels, the stock is starting to look compelling. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings is a buy on news that the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and relayed by ZeroHedge. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' acquisition strategy risks diluting shareholders if revenue cannot catch up with share issuance over a modest period. The model can work if it does; otherwise value gets diluted away. Fair value looks like $3-5. x.comÂ
Ondas stands to benefit directly from Trump's new tariffs of up to 100% on foreign drones and parts, which protect US manufacturers from Chinese competition and encourage domestic production and spending. Ondas is a Florida-based maker of autonomous drones and defense systems. Shares are consolidating, with resistance at $10 and support at $8.60. x.comÂ