Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Robinhood offered a much better risk profile than SoFi, with many chances this year to buy it in the $70s and even $60s. SoFi may ultimately work, but its path to execution is less clear, and a piece by nanalyzetweets lays out harsh truths about it that much of X doesn't want to admit. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
SoFi's cross-selling is turning growth into faster profits, making its valuation more compelling than Robinhood's despite higher margins there. Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EBITDA 70%; fee-based revenue reached 42% of sales. Management guides to $6.4B revenue and $2.24B adjusted EBITDA in 2027 without needing new capital for that plan, though future dilution is possible. Robinhood's 12.4x analyst-estimated 2027 sales is nearly four times SoFi's 3.3x on management guidance. SoFi must deliver. … Show more
Robinhood is well positioned for the coming generational wealth transfer because it owns the younger investor. Older generations still control over 60% of US wealth, and trillions will eventually flow to younger generations. SoFi is preferred, though, as Robinhood trades at a much richer multiple despite slower growth and is far more cyclical. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood and SoFi are worth owning together because they are not competing for the same thing. Robinhood is the brokerage layer of gamified investing, crypto and options for next-generation traders, while SoFi is the full financial stack of banking, lending and investing. They share a target demographic with different product anchors, both are early in monetizing their user bases at scale, and in 10 years one customer could be active on both. x.comÂ
Robinhood's weather betting rules it out as an investment. SoFi is the preferred alternative. x.comÂ
SoFi is shaping up as an opportunity like Robinhood's run from the $40s to $100 a year ago, though likely smaller, and the broader fintech group, Robinhood included, should run too. SoFi's weekly and monthly base and a macro environment favorable to fintech and metals support the setup. SoFi is slightly favored because a breakout after one to two years of stagnation could trigger FOMO, and markets often overextend such breakouts and react extra optimistically to positive news. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood looks attractive after falling alongside SoFi. x.comÂ
SoFi has more upside than Robinhood, and its shares can be bought below the price the CEO himself paid. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi is struggling and its leadership's blockchain push looks like a substitute for a real plan. CEO Anthony Noto calls blockchain the fix for archaic financial infrastructure, but SoFi is caught between sector rotation and agentic AI. Bulls cite $1.2B of net revenue, a pre-operating-expense metric, yet SoFi's profit margin is about 14% versus Robinhood's 42%, and it spends about 4x as much on sales and marketing. Its new stablecoin launched with a $60k transaction, years behind Circle. x.com … Show more
