Bizlink is a beneficiary of Nvidia's faster-than-expected co-packaged optics ramp, because CPO carries higher content for it than near-packaged optics. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production as key component yields improve, with scale-out switch shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 and 100k in 2027. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m in 2027 and 42m in 2028, as NVL576 is intact but Trainium 4 is slower. Full NPO adoption is retained for the cycle. x.com  x.com 

Optical circuit switching could become a far larger market if Nvidia adopts it, ending near-total reliance on Google and benefiting Lumentum, Huber+Suhner and Celestica. Per @FundaAI, Nvidia is likely to adopt OCS after late 2028 to connect GPUs across racks, and it backed Spanish OCS startup iPronics. OCS is about $400M today and a few billion next year; Funda suggests it could reach $20B a year by 2030. Open question: how rack-to-rack OCS compares with NPO and CPO. x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

Optical test makers such as FormFactor, Aehr Test Systems and Viavi should keep growing whichever optical path wins, because every interconnect, pluggable, near-packaged or co-packaged, must be tested. Optical stocks plunged after a June report of CPO shipment delays, and engineers now point to a growing role for near-packaged optics and possible delays in some scale-up CPO. That shifts the question to who benefits as both grow, and testing is the bottleneck behind every other AI bottleneck. … Show more

Optical networking's broader rollout will be slow because scale-up and scale-out require orders of magnitude more connections than today's limited optical distance links. Supply-chain discussions echo that slow pace. NPO/CPO starts in switches and reaches XPUs and GPUs much later, with new challenges. Optical backplanes will be necessary as racks move to optical, though copper will remain in many implementations. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The shift from copper to light inside AI data centers is accelerating, and near-packaged optics is pulling optical demand forward. Lumentum's CEO said NPO demand looks bigger than CPO and arrived sooner, and he sees about $40 per share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above sell-side estimates, with none of it in the numbers yet. Coherent's CEO said CPO and NPO engagement has jumped, with comparable content per socket. NVIDIA has moved its Spectrum-X CPO switch into full production. x.com 

Pluggable optics have a new scaling path alongside CPO and NPO, supporting demand for light from Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics. Nvidia and Cisco's planned USFP packs 16 full-duplex 400G/lane connections into an OSFP-sized footprint, targeting four times the bandwidth density of 200G/lane modules while retaining replaceability. Volume-production timing and adoption remain unknown. x.com  x.com 

Networking is the next AI hardware trade after memory, whose share of rack value rose from 15% to 35%. Optics is moving inside the server, as Nvidia's Feynman architecture builds in co-packaged optics and silicon photonics. Scale-across networking could grow 30% a year just linking existing data centers, as inference moves closer to users and training spreads across sites. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO said it can meet only 30% of expected 2027 demand and sees optics tighter than memory. x.com 

Lumentum, Coherent and AXT benefit because every 800G/1.6T pluggable and CPO engine still needs an InP laser, which silicon photonics cannot generate. Lumentum's CEO says the InP gap is now worse than DRAM and NAND, with EML demand over 30% above supply even after output rose 50%+ this year, and Nvidia put $2B each into Lumentum and Coherent to reserve that layer. NPO is fully additive, getting scale-up lasers paid before CPO ramps, and Lumentum is first into that socket. x.com  x.com 

Lumentum's valuation is supported by Nvidia's co-packaged optics scale-out progressing faster than expected. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production on better component yields, with shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 rising to 100k in 2027. CPO and NPO are seen contributing 12% and 26% of Lumentum's revenue in 2027 and 2028. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m and 42m for 2027 and 2028, with full NPO adoption for the cycle retained. x.com