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Damnang

Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research

2 Oct, 02:58Latest

Optical test makers such as FormFactor, Aehr Test Systems and Viavi should keep growing whichever optical path wins, because every interconnect, pluggable, near-packaged or co-packaged, must be tested. Optical stocks plunged after a June report of CPO shipment delays, and engineers now point to a growing role for near-packaged optics and possible delays in some scale-up CPO. That shifts the question to who benefits as both grow, and testing is the bottleneck behind every other AI bottleneck. x.com x.com

AEHR

FORM

VIAV

3 May, 07:45

CPO test equipment makers such as FormFactor, Aehr Test Systems and Viavi get dual leverage as optics move inside the chip package. In co-packaged optics a late PIC defect can scrap the whole ASIC package, so known-good-die testing becomes essential; test steps multiply, sub-micron fiber alignment slows testing, and lasers and optical measurement raise equipment prices. The test cycle opens before volume, with TSMC's COUPE platform reportedly entering volume production in 2026. x.com

AEHR

FORM

VIAV

Photon Capital

Photonics & Semiconductor Research

12 Oct

TER

Optical test suppliers benefit because CPO and NPO both need verified components. CPO needs screening before costly integration and checks after assembly; NPO modules must be known-good before installation. VCSELs change measurements, not the need for reliability checks. Broadcom's OCP slide shows 1,000+ fibers per chip package and automated testing. Avoid panic-selling FormFactor, Aehr, Keysight, Teradyne, Viavi, Advantest and Cohu; upside depends on adoption, volume and throughput. x.com x.com … Show more

Teng Yan

Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research

30 Jun

AEHR

Aehr Test Systems has a proven lead in a test step AI optics needs but few can run at scale: high-power wafer-level burn-in for silicon photonics. Co-packaged optics makes it mandatory, since a chip failing after bonding scraps the whole switch, and newer devices need 2-4x more burn-in power. Bookings hit $37.2M, up over 500% in a quarter, at a book-to-bill above 3.5x. Goldman sees optical networking growing from about $15B in 2026 to $154B by 2028, and the test bottleneck forms first. x.com

Jeff Pu

Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities

29 Sep

3665.TW

Bizlink is a beneficiary of Nvidia's faster-than-expected co-packaged optics ramp, because CPO carries higher content for it than near-packaged optics. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production as key component yields improve, with scale-out switch shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 and 100k in 2027. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m in 2027 and 42m in 2028, as NVL576 is intact but Trainium 4 is slower. Full NPO adoption is retained for the cycle. x.com x.com

Joel

Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader

28 Oct

AAOI

SIVE.ST

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.com

Convequity

AI Value-Chain & Enterprise Technology Research

9 Jun

002281.SZ

300308.SZ

300502.SZ

Near-packaged optics, the segment Chinese suppliers Innolight, Eoptolink and Accelink serve, is gaining commercial traction faster than consensus expects and could compress co-packaged optics' market. NPO already shows 6.4T bandwidth at the switch while CPO is still validating 1.6T, with better ROI, serviceability and vendor flexibility. Google is testing 6.4T for mid-2027 alongside its NPO-only TPUv9, and Meta and Amazon add demand. Goldman's $91 billion CPO forecast assumes no displacement. … Show more

Finn Stockinger

Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research

19 Oct

AAOI

CRDO

Optical transceiver demand exceeds supply, and 1.6T lifts revenue per module for suppliers able to qualify capacity. Applied Optoelectronics raised at least $1.62B through 2026 ATMs; its last reported monthly capacity was 200,000 modules versus a year-end target above 650,000. Credo expects over $600M in FY2027 revenue across optical DSPs, PICs and modules, not modules alone. Shipments, yields and margins must prove out. Lumentum and Coherent already price in much expected growth. x.com

Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

14 Oct

FORM

FormFactor's production-ready wafer-level CPO probe gives it a test opportunity at a major foundry, but that business depends on one customer. CEO Mike Slessor says the CPO piece flows through a foundry worth 10% of sales; he did not name it, though an analyst named TSMC. Triton tests photonic wafers before stacking; post-stack test remains difficult. FormFactor expects CPO test revenue to significantly exceed $20m this year and estimates a $400m market by 2030. x.com

PelicanTrader

Portfolio Manager at Equity Empire, Former Hedge Fund Manager

3 Oct

LITE

COHR

CRDO

The shift from copper to light inside AI data centers is accelerating, and near-packaged optics is pulling optical demand forward. Lumentum's CEO said NPO demand looks bigger than CPO and arrived sooner, and he sees about $40 per share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above sell-side estimates, with none of it in the numbers yet. Coherent's CEO said CPO and NPO engagement has jumped, with comparable content per socket. NVIDIA has moved its Spectrum-X CPO switch into full production. x.com

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

5 Aug

VIAV

VIAVI Solutions benefits from every fight in the interconnect layer, since copper versus optical and pluggable versus co-packaged all raise test intensity whoever wins. Its quarter beat cleanly: revenue rose 52.5% to $443.1 million, operating margin expanded 960bp to 24%, and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.40-0.42 crushed the $0.28 estimate. The test segment grew 69.2%. CEO Oleg Khaykin called CPO delay fears nonsense, saying yield issues mean more testing, with CPO revenue starting this quarter. x.com … Show more

Ben Bajarin

CEO & Principal Analyst of Creative Strategies, Semiconductors-to-Software Research

15 Oct

COHR

Optical networking's broader rollout will be slow because scale-up and scale-out require orders of magnitude more connections than today's limited optical distance links. Supply-chain discussions echo that slow pace. NPO/CPO starts in switches and reaches XPUs and GPUs much later, with new challenges. Optical backplanes will be necessary as racks move to optical, though copper will remain in many implementations. x.com x.com x.com x.com

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