Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Hims & Hers has not included any Eucalyptus revenue in its 2026 guidance, so the acquisition is all upside. Per @himshouse, Leerink, which reiterated a $25 target and market perform rating, expects the deal's earlier-than-expected close to lead to revenue upside. The market often fails to price such acquisition boosts, as with Palo Alto Networks, whose CyberArk and Chronosphere deals contributed $388M of revenue last quarter, per @wallstengine. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is scaling quickly as branded weight-loss treatments and international expansion add growth. Q2 revenue rose nearly 40% to $753M, subscribers grew by 300,000 to near 3 million, and full-year revenue guidance rose to $3.1-3.3B. International revenue rose more than 17-fold on the Eucalyptus acquisition, and branded weight-management offerings added over 125,000 users since spring. AI handles about 80% of customer inquiries, cutting non-clinical support costs nearly 50%. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' compounding direct-to-consumer distribution makes it stupidly undervalued next to Tempus AI. Hims has $2.6B in trailing revenue at a $6.7B market cap, with 66.5% annual revenue growth from Q3 2021 to Q2 2026; Tempus has $1.4B in revenue, a $14.9B market cap and 40.4% annual growth. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers suffers from bad management, and government pressure is squeezing its pharma margins. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide capabilities may be underappreciated, setting up a strong bounce after peptide news. Per @riyadosofian, it is the only telehealth company with a peptide facility and global distribution system. A strong bounce is expected now as the stock holds outside its wedge. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers can 10x on GLP-1s and international expansion. It has a $6.86B market cap against $2.58B of trailing revenue growing 28%, with 3 million subscribers. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' latest earnings show a deteriorating business, and hype is not worth much when that happens. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' growth is on sale at a PEG of about 0.8 because last year's crash left the stock cheap. Revenue grew 40% to $753M last quarter and full-year guidance was raised to $3.3B; sub-1 PEGs are usually born from drawdowns like that. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers looks good on paper, but past revenue growth does not guarantee future growth and margins are falling, which is very bad. Its peptides story could rerate the stock if executed, but it brings another regulatory overhang: peptides will be in regulation headlines every day and the stock will trade on them. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more