Alex A.C.
Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng
A projected 322-fold expansion in scale-up optical engines favors Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts the market growing from $279 million in 2026 to $90 billion in 2030. Optical engines are the most valuable part of the photonics bill of materials. x.comÂ
Denser pluggables can serve AI optics now while co-packaged integration remains difficult. Nvidia and Cisco plan a 400Gb/s-per-lane USFP module; transceivers should dominate beyond 2028, favoring Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum. InP supply should stay extremely tight for years, supporting them and Ciena: Mizuho sees 6-inch wafer ramps only from 2028. Coherent could still source wafers; smaller Applied Optoelectronics may have more room to profit. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com x.comÂ
AI networking and optics growth underpins an extremely bullish outlook for Lumentum, Coherent, Marvell, Credo, Astera Labs and Broadcom. BofA estimates AI networking will grow from $95.6B in 2026 to $394B in 2030, with optical reaching $111B and co-packaged and near-packaged optics reaching $14.1B and $10.7B. Photonics is one of the most interesting investment themes for 2027 onward, though it is a complex market with many players. x.comÂ
Co-packaged optics standards could make finished transceiver modules smaller and more interchangeable as chip designers build optical engines inside their packages. That is another reason to avoid Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics and prefer Soitec. Lumentum and Coherent now earn a lot from finished modules, leaving them exposed if the architecture changes. x.comÂ
Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.comÂ
Optical transceiver demand exceeds supply, and 1.6T lifts revenue per module for suppliers able to qualify capacity. Applied Optoelectronics raised at least $1.62B through 2026 ATMs; its last reported monthly capacity was 200,000 modules versus a year-end target above 650,000. Credo expects over $600M in FY2027 revenue across optical DSPs, PICs and modules, not modules alone. Shipments, yields and margins must prove out. Lumentum and Coherent already price in much expected growth. x.comÂ
Wafer-tested VCSEL arrays could erode Lumentum's laser scarcity premium if scale-up links adopt wide, parallel designs. Lumentum's in-rack demo used arrays but does not replace every high-power laser; Credo and ams OSRAM seek approval for a parallel-link standard in 2027. Multiple suppliers would pressure pricing power and margins. Near-term earnings could still benefit from laser shortages, with Lumentum sold out through early 2029. x.comÂ
Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.comÂ
Lumentum's 109% year-on-year growth and sold-out capacity through 2029 make selling its AI optics exposure questionable. Bloomberg reported Marvell is in advanced talks to buy it; the appeal depends on the price, especially when holders of an $80 billion Lumentum would become holders of a $320 billion-plus Marvell growing 37%. x.comÂ
The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.comÂ
Higher optical-fiber use per GPU could expand demand for Applied Optoelectronics. Corning said fully optical scale-up would raise fiber count from about 16 to 160 per GPU; that 10x case is hypothetical for now, with a mix of technologies likely near term, but it shows the direction of travel. x.com x.comÂ
