Antonio Linares
Long-Term Technology & Biotech Investor, Early AMD/TSLA/PLTR/SPOT Positions
Caris Life Sciences is in a trillion-dollar race with Tempus AI to become the dominant biology ontology, and current market caps should not fool anyone. The two are essentially the same business, except that Tempus operates at larger scale while Caris prioritizes depth over breadth and is already printing cash. x.comÂ
Tempus AI and Caris Life Sciences both represent good value in AI-driven biopharma diagnostics. Tempus has some advantages, but with Caris running faster lately the two have become closer; at about $55 for Tempus and $16 for Caris, Caris was the preference, while the choice between them today is less clear. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more
Tempus AI has quietly built a data moat the market hasn't figured out. It holds 45 million de-identified patient records and 500+ petabytes of clinical data, partners with AstraZeneca, GSK and Merck, and has FDA approval for its xT CDx test. With 20% short interest, a bottom is forming at $42-46, and a buy signal triggered at $55.87. x.comÂ
Bio-diagnostics offers the best value in the market, trading at lower price-to-sales multiples than software with low correlation to the AI trade. Its data-services businesses should become increasingly important because of AI. Tempus is the key name to understand, with smaller players including Exagen, Quanterix and GeneDx in the theme, and Caris Life Sciences just posted great results. x.com x.comÂ
The new licenses strengthen Tempus AI's long-term $50-100B bull case by monetizing its clinical data in neurology as well as oncology. Per Tempus, Pathos agreed to pay $55M over five years to license a neurology dataset Tempus plans to build from hundreds of thousands of patient records. Tempus also says Bristol Myers Squibb expanded oncology data licensing through 2031 and will gain access to Lens. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AI now makes early disease detection possible at scale, and catching disease early is always cheaper than treating it late. Detection names like Grail, Guardant, RadNet and Lunit win on distribution and reimbursement; grading names like Tempus, Veracyte, GE HealthCare and HeartFlow build data moats near treatment decisions. Monitoring via Natera, Personalis and iRhythm is the most asymmetric layer, a recurring subscription. NVIDIA gets paid whichever test wins. x.comÂ
GeneDx's proposed Medicare cuts may have a much smaller direct impact than its selloff implies. Craig-Hallum estimates a $5.6 million annual hit, about 1% of exome and genome revenue. Q2 testing volume grew 32%, though revenue per test is declining; the proprietary rare-disease database and potential for AI-driven interpretation remain compelling. At $65, risk/reward might be attractive again, but reimbursement, profitability and execution remain risks. November 3 earnings should clarify. x.comÂ