Martin Bradstreet
Investor & Programmer, Former Poker Player
Tempus AI and Caris Life Sciences both represent good value in AI-driven biopharma diagnostics. Tempus has some advantages, but with Caris running faster lately the two have become closer; at about $55 for Tempus and $16 for Caris, Caris was the preference, while the choice between them today is less clear. x.comÂ
Caris Life Sciences is the best cancer diagnostics pick after Personalis's big run, because cancer diagnostics is a great business that will massively benefit from AI. These companies use diagnostics data to guide treatment and track recurrence. Per @LogicalThesis, AI diagnostics names have 60-70% gross margins, 20-30% volume growth and 3-4x sales valuations, with moats in proprietary and clinical data and insurance coverage, making them AI beneficiaries without disruption risk. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's selloff after it beat and raised guidance looks like a great deal, and a further drop would be a chance to buy more. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' compounding direct-to-consumer distribution makes it stupidly undervalued next to Tempus AI. Hims has $2.6B in trailing revenue at a $6.7B market cap, with 66.5% annual revenue growth from Q3 2021 to Q2 2026; Tempus has $1.4B in revenue, a $14.9B market cap and 40.4% annual growth. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.comÂ
The new licenses strengthen Tempus AI's long-term $50-100B bull case by monetizing its clinical data in neurology as well as oncology. Per Tempus, Pathos agreed to pay $55M over five years to license a neurology dataset Tempus plans to build from hundreds of thousands of patient records. Tempus also says Bristol Myers Squibb expanded oncology data licensing through 2031 and will gain access to Lens. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Tempus AI may go lower near term because of valuation, leadership reputation and insider selling, despite an amazing business. With about 25% growth expected and profitability uncertain, it is not obviously cheap. Glassdoor reviews matter in medicine's high-trust setting, and ongoing insider sales echo founder patterns that ended badly. The data piece, about 5% of market cap, can earn a high multiple, so the stock looks reasonably priced if adoption continues. x.comÂ
Tempus AI could be a picks-and-shovels play on AI pharma, since its data was reportedly used in Moderna's cancer cure development process. It is a speculative holding: whether the company is legitimate is hard to tell. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's acquisition of Personalis gives it the technology platform behind Moderna's and Merck's recent cancer-vaccine advances. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's latest news is good, even if that sounds crazy. x.comÂ
