Autodesk trades at a huge premium to Adobe and is likely to go through the same narrative cycle, so it is not as cheap as it looks. x.com
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Equity & Macro Commentary, Technology Investing
Adobe is a bit undervalued, though not significantly, at 13x earnings with 13% revenue growth. Its falling profit margin is concerning, and AI threats are growing as image generation improves. x.com
Adobe's core value is being eroded because gen AI increasingly excels at what Adobe did better than anyone: generating and editing images, video, audio and designs. Adobe likely has no proprietary data advantage, or at least none visible, the gap a quoted post says would leave it more exposed to AI disruption. Bulls may know better. x.com
AI agents could drive high demand for software, so these names should not be overlooked. The targets: ServiceNow $200, Microsoft $650, Salesforce $275, AppLovin $1,000 and Autodesk $350. x.com
Adobe is heavily oversold, and some of the best money is made when a story goes from very bad to just bad, before it turns good. Per the Wall Street Journal, Adobe is launching CX Enterprise, an AI agent platform for business marketing tasks, with 30+ partners including Microsoft, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia and AWS. x.com
Adobe's 8x P/E signals that its outlook numbers are unreliable, its capital allocation is poor and it is likely a casualty of AI. It spent all its free cash flow buying back shares at $400 and is on a direct collision course with AI; no one can say its products will be as crucial as in the last two decades. Unlike Meta in 2022, whose ads business was never impaired, there are too many unknowns. It could work or stagnate for years, so it sits in the too-hard bucket even if multiples scream buy. … Show more
Adobe's risk is greatly reduced here: the stock sits at its 200-month moving average and 0.65 Fibonacci support, in a bullish descending wedge after a clean three-wave pullback, while generating $10.1 billion of free cash flow a year. The story now hinges on whether Adobe can pivot fast enough to compete with ChatGPT. x.com
Adobe is a strong company hit harder than it should be, as the market treats a temporary slowdown as permanent decline. It fits the undervalued setup of a real moat, temporary rather than structural problems and extremely negative sentiment, where the price has fallen more than the fundamentals, lowering risk and raising upside. Great companies adapt and recover. x.com
Adobe is priced below its Covid-crash intraday low even though it now makes 3x more money with 20% fewer shares, and its best run of profit growth has come during the AI era. It beat last quarter's guidance and raised its full-year outlook, yet trades around 10x current, a low price for growth that should destroy the bear narrative. It also bought back 9.5M shares for over $2.3B. x.com x.com
Adobe is hard to want to own after an open-source project reimplemented its full software suite, as @math_fournity reports. x.com
Adobe faces an existential AI question: if anyone can edit an image or generate a video with a text prompt, what is Photoshop for? Image and video generation is changing faster than almost any field but code, threatening the complex interfaces Creative Cloud was built on, and Adobe relies on Google, OpenAI, Midjourney and others for frontier models. Canva and startups are attacking pieces of the suite. Pixel-perfect editing and Firefly's $250M ARR, up 75% a quarter, are the bull case. x.com