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Kairos

Stock Research

17 Aug, 17:03Latest

Cellebrite is unlikely to return to 25% ARR growth, so its cheap valuation will not expand until revenue reaccelerates. It depends too heavily on the US government, unlike Axon, which is diversifying into states and commercial. Its edge was unlocking iPhones, but its evidence-management platform is sticky without a moat, and breaching phones gets harder with each iOS version. Repeated misses with new excuses are worrying, even if guidance looks sandbagged and deal delays are only ~6 weeks. x.com x.com x.com

CLBT

1 Jul, 17:40

Cellebrite remains one of six highest-conviction positions expected to be much better placed in 3-5 years, though a tough call because price drives sentiment. It has completed the shift from mobile data extraction to an end-to-end investigative SaaS platform, criminal investigations cannot function without its data management, and after strong acquisitions its new AI tool is hidden upside. x.com

CLBT

Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

16 Apr

CLBT

Cellebrite is hard to get excited about at 22 times next-twelve-month EPS when analysts expect only 11% EPS growth over the next two years. A post the author replies to argues it is oversold, 76% below its high, with 2025 revenue up 19% to $475.7M. x.com

Wasteland Capital

Global Markets Investor, US, UK & European Assets

26 Jun

AAPL

Apple's sweeping price increases deliver the revenue-growth bull case. It is raising prices on current and even years-old products, refurbished units included, such as a 30% bump on the 2019 HomePod mini, and the iPhone 18 looks set for a $200+ increase. How demand responds is uncertain: people may keep devices longer, and if volumes nosedive Apple will likely add some forced obsolescence. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Deep Sail Capital

Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps

14 Aug

CLBT

Cellebrite's guidance cut looks like kitchen-sinking expectations to give the new CEO a low base, setting up a beat and re-raise. On the call, 4-5 major deals slipped a quarter and Genesis is ramping slower than expected, but new products are growing over 25%, FedRAMP is a tailwind, and US federal barely grew last year. A Q3 beat and re-raise could take the stock back to $16, a 50% return in a quarter. If deal closings do not speed up in Q3, the recovery takes longer, but risk-reward looks good. … Show more

Investing visuals

Technology Investor, Visual Company Research

6 May

AXON

Axon's very strong Q1 and rising bookings support its growth case. Revenue was $807 million versus $779 million expected, EPS $1.61 versus $1.60, and net retention 125%. It guides 2026 revenue growth of 30-32%, with future contracted bookings up 44%. Stock-based compensation remains the main drawback, with about 4.5% share dilution that is high but should come down materially over time. x.com x.com

squawksquare

Tesla Trader, Vehicle & Brand Analysis

8 Jun

AAPL

Apple risks sliding after WWDC without a one-more-thing surprise, as Siri AI looks less robust than expected and Apple remains way behind in using AI in its OS. Adding a CPU scheduler back to models as old as the iPhone 11 to make them faster also undercuts the main reason to upgrade: speed. x.com x.com x.com

Daniel

Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

21 Mar

AAPL

Apple is the one Magnificent Seven stock not worth buying, because its total lack of innovation strongly limits its growth potential while it trades at 28.8 times forward earnings. Meta at 19.8x, Nvidia at 20.8x, Microsoft at 21.7x, Alphabet at 26x and Amazon at 26.6x look like deals as the market nears a correction. Apple will do fine, but iPhones may no longer be needed in 10 years. x.com x.com

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