Amazon's agentic-commerce risk looks increasingly unlikely to matter, because people will not hand the purchase process to AI agents: shoppers are picky, and deep down shopping is entertainment, not a chore. x.comÂ
Nick Dorsey
Deals Lead at Compute Exchange, Building Joule14
Amazon's case is improving because its Arm-based Graviton CPU is well positioned for the agentic boom and its e-commerce margins are expanding. Last quarter's e-commerce margin expansion raises confidence that Amazon can keep pushing margins, and getting that business above 15% would mean a huge profit boom, a case that looks increasingly plausible. Trainium remains a negative. A cheaper price would be nicer, but assuming big tech stays cheap at mid-20s forward P/E is dangerous. x.com x.comÂ
Agentic commerce is more likely to reward Amazon than disrupt it, the reverse of how the market sees it. If AI agents optimize for price, selection, speed, reviews and trust, Amazon is the company being measured against those criteria and likely rewarded, not the one being displaced. x.comÂ
AWS's near-40% growth and agents' limited adoption make negative pre-earnings sentiment toward Amazon look misplaced. AWS was expected to have one of its best quarters and reported $184B ARR, up 39.3%, close to the projected $185B and 40%. Agents remain far from mainstream, so agentic e-commerce disruption was not expected to show up this quarter. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon keeps hurting itself with its AI strategy by blocking AI shopping agents such as Muse to protect its high-margin sponsored-product revenue. That hands Shopify, which just partnered with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores, an easy win. The tradeoff works for now because agentic shopping is a small share of volume, but if Amazon stays this stubborn it faces a long-run disintermediation threat as AI comes to facilitate something like 25% of online shopping. … Show more
Amazon should thrive as shopping agents spread, because agents seek the best product at the lowest price delivered fastest, and Amazon leads on assortment, prices and fulfillment. It blocks outside agents today, but CEO Andy Jassy has signaled integrations will come; Amazon is building its own agents first and must protect its large ad and sponsored-listing business while it works out agent monetization. Once it opens up, Amazon should over-index in agent-driven market share. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon blocking Meta's Muse agent from its e-commerce site leaves Meta and Shopify more aligned than ever in agentic commerce, which is bullish for Shopify though the stock has not moved. Amazon's move resembles Salesforce trying to charge for data egress as its AI strategy. Agentic shopping should get people spending more freely and often by removing friction such as combing through bad reviews. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's retail business makes it an unattractive way to own ANT exposure now that hyperscalers are no longer necessary for it. x.comÂ
Platform-agnostic shopping agents could bring Shopify meaningfully more transactions rather than favoring Amazon or Walmart. Amazon banning agents makes that prospect even more bullish for Shopify. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon still has many positives, with Prime and logistics as big moats, but AI shopping agents are a real complication. Customers used to buying on Amazon without looking around could be steered elsewhere: ChatGPT found in seconds a $38 Walmart bookshelf that 20 minutes of searching Amazon missed. That is a problem with no easy answers for a platform designed to be the only place customers look, and for ad and lead-gen businesses; Amazon has blocked agents such as ChatGPT from its listings. … Show more
Amazon is losing ground in shopping and should not hide behind a far-off $1T AWS. Customers go where the experience is easy, products are solid and prices great, and Amazon has lost the price battle. Blocking AI shopping agents would cost it the easy experience, while agents predicting orders from a user's history would erase its delivery-speed advantage. Shopify's CEO lifted Shopify 14% with one post on agentic commerce while Amazon fumbled; Amazon needs to wake up before losing share. x.com … Show more
AWS's rapid growth in a huge business makes the long-term outlook decisively bullish for Amazon and the AI ecosystem. AWS revenue grew 39.3% year over year in September 2026; management guides for growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028. Amazon is always very conservative with guidance, making that AI outlook doubly bullish. x.com x.com x.comÂ