Amazon is losing ground in shopping and should not hide behind a far-off $1T AWS. Customers go where the experience is easy, products are solid and prices great, and Amazon has lost the price battle. Blocking AI shopping agents would cost it the easy experience, while agents predicting orders from a user's history would erase its delivery-speed advantage. Shopify's CEO lifted Shopify 14% with one post on agentic commerce while Amazon fumbled; Amazon needs to wake up before losing share. x.com  … Show more

Amazon blocking Meta's Muse agent from its e-commerce site leaves Meta and Shopify more aligned than ever in agentic commerce, which is bullish for Shopify though the stock has not moved. Amazon's move resembles Salesforce trying to charge for data egress as its AI strategy. Agentic shopping should get people spending more freely and often by removing friction such as combing through bad reviews. x.com  x.com 

Shopify's valuation leaves no cushion for any growth deceleration. x.com 

Amazon should thrive as shopping agents spread, because agents seek the best product at the lowest price delivered fastest, and Amazon leads on assortment, prices and fulfillment. It blocks outside agents today, but CEO Andy Jassy has signaled integrations will come; Amazon is building its own agents first and must protect its large ad and sponsored-listing business while it works out agent monetization. Once it opens up, Amazon should over-index in agent-driven market share. x.com  x.com 

Shopify can take on Amazon in agentic shopping by attacking weak spots Amazon can't address because it must protect its ads business and walled garden. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi described overtaking Snowflake by studying the competition and going after its weaknesses, a similar opportunity for Shopify. It isn't one-to-one: Prime and logistics mean Amazon could shut out agents and be fine, and @Appyg99 points to Amazon's fast fulfillment. x.com  x.com 

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Shopify and DoorDash are likely winners from consumer AI agents, which hurt marketplaces and sponsored ads but help logistics, discovery ads and businesses selling outside marketplaces. Less reliance on marketplaces favors Shopify as an e-commerce enabler, while DoorDash's logistics remain best in class. Both sold off on a knee-jerk reaction, and platform shifts hugely underprice management; they have two of the best CEOs in the space. x.com  x.com 

Amazon keeps hurting itself with its AI strategy by blocking AI shopping agents such as Muse to protect its high-margin sponsored-product revenue. That hands Shopify, which just partnered with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores, an easy win. The tradeoff works for now because agentic shopping is a small share of volume, but if Amazon stays this stubborn it faces a long-run disintermediation threat as AI comes to facilitate something like 25% of online shopping. … Show more

Shopify's moat may not last if AI can build and run a store end to end without a platform taking 3% of GMV. CEO Tobi Lütke says over 50% of its code is now AI-generated; if that reaches 80% and then 95%, merchants and new AI-native startups can use the same models directly. The $101B GMV, 34% revenue growth and 15% FCF margin are real, so the 16% drop after a beat prices the moat's duration, not the quarter. The bypass need not be sudden, only a growing share of new commerce spend. x.com 

Agentic AI commerce could unlock Shopify's next major growth opportunity. Revenue is projected to more than double from $11.6B to $24.2B by 2028, while EPS is expected to rise from $1.48 to $3.32, more than 2.2 times. x.com