Shopify's moat may not last if AI can build and run a store end to end without a platform taking 3% of GMV. CEO Tobi Lütke says over 50% of its code is now AI-generated; if that reaches 80% and then 95%, merchants and new AI-native startups can use the same models directly. The $101B GMV, 34% revenue growth and 15% FCF margin are real, so the 16% drop after a beat prices the moat's duration, not the quarter. The bypass need not be sudden, only a growing share of new commerce spend. x.com 

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Shopify is becoming the infrastructure layer between merchants and AI agents, making AI a source of new demand rather than only a threat. In Q2, AI-driven traffic and orders tripled, and new-buyer orders from AI channels came at nearly twice other channels' rate. Its Catalog gives agents over 1 billion products with 2x higher conversion, and MRR growth reached 19%. A 79x forward P/E premium is justified by accelerating growth, strong retention and improving profitability, if execution holds. … Show more

Shopify is ripe for agentic AI disruption, which is why the market stays bearish despite cheap-looking multiples and growing revenue. Its main selling point is hundreds of plug-and-play features, yet most stores need only a few, so a bloated platform can be replaced by custom solutions built from a prompt. Logistics can come from firms like ShipMonk and payments from Stripe, and merchants can buy vibe-coded stores cheaply. The shift is moving fast, even if not for everyone today. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Shopify is one of the best businesses around, but its valuation is too difficult to justify owning it. @profpicsou's article asks whether AI will destroy SaaS and whether Shopify, now a near-unavoidable commerce machine with millions of stores and a huge ecosystem, is well placed as plugins connect to ChatGPT, and at what price. Its section on AI and agentic impact is especially worth reading. x.com 

Agentic AI commerce could unlock Shopify's next major growth opportunity. Revenue is projected to more than double from $11.6B to $24.2B by 2028, while EPS is expected to rise from $1.48 to $3.32, more than 2.2 times. x.com 

Amazon is losing ground in shopping and should not hide behind a far-off $1T AWS. Customers go where the experience is easy, products are solid and prices great, and Amazon has lost the price battle. Blocking AI shopping agents would cost it the easy experience, while agents predicting orders from a user's history would erase its delivery-speed advantage. Shopify's CEO lifted Shopify 14% with one post on agentic commerce while Amazon fumbled; Amazon needs to wake up before losing share. x.com  … Show more

Amazon keeps hurting itself with its AI strategy by blocking AI shopping agents such as Muse to protect its high-margin sponsored-product revenue. That hands Shopify, which just partnered with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores, an easy win. The tradeoff works for now because agentic shopping is a small share of volume, but if Amazon stays this stubborn it faces a long-run disintermediation threat as AI comes to facilitate something like 25% of online shopping. … Show more

Shopify and DoorDash are likely winners from consumer AI agents, which hurt marketplaces and sponsored ads but help logistics, discovery ads and businesses selling outside marketplaces. Less reliance on marketplaces favors Shopify as an e-commerce enabler, while DoorDash's logistics remain best in class. Both sold off on a knee-jerk reaction, and platform shifts hugely underprice management; they have two of the best CEOs in the space. x.com  x.com 

Shopify is an outstanding company with elite management, but it is too expensive because it is evolving into a fintech and gross margins will likely compress over time. Merchant Solutions keeps growing faster than Subscriptions, even as GMV compounds exceptionally and take rates expand. It would be worth owning again at a lower valuation. x.com