leki
Equity Investor, Multibagger Research, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Smart Eye is worth at least 150 SEK and as much as 180 SEK because a profitable driver-monitoring leader growing 40% trades at about 10x FY2027 EV/EBITDA versus 12-18x for quality vision-AI peers. An EU law going live July 7 makes its tech mandatory in new cars. Q1 royalties rose 200%, gross margin hit 91.3%, and 386 design wins back SEK 8.85B of lifetime orders. Affectiva's 15M-face dataset gives a free option on emotion and gaze sensing for embodied AI. x.com x.com x.com
Smart Eye is a driver-monitoring software royalty business about to gain a legally mandated demand floor that the market has not yet repriced. The EU's ADDW mandate from July 7, 2026 requires driver monitoring on all new EU vehicle registrations. Q1 2026 automotive royalties rose 200% and EBITDA margin swung to 21.3% from -19.9%. It has 372 design wins across 24 OEMs, 3M+ cars on the road and sticky 12-18 month qualification cycles. At SEK 83.5 it prices only 40-55% of the FY2027 base case. x.com x.com
Mobileye, the leader in autonomous-driving chips, has multi-fold upside by 2028 as self-driving penetration accelerates. Its EyeQ lineup keeps improving, with commercial orders projected to grow explosively in 2026-2027. x.com
Aeva is shifting from concept stock to execution story, and a large production design win with an unnamed top-10 European passenger OEM is the key catalyst. Its 4D FMCW lidar measures per-point velocity as well as position, resists glare and interference, and could extend into silicon photonic AI data center interconnects. Deployments in industrial, trucking (Daimler, Bendix) and smart cities diversify revenue, and a $115 million June raise removes insolvency or dilution risk for 18-24 months. … Show more
Ambarella's Q1 points to a compounding AI growth story despite the stock falling. Revenue rose 16.9% to $100.4M on a double beat, with record automotive revenue as AI penetrates commercial vehicles, and Q2 guided to $105–111M. Its CEO says new advanced-AI products carry ASPs well above current levels, so growth comes from higher revenue per unit too. It added a $50M buyback, holds $277M with no debt, and signed an $800M+ decade-long partnership with Hanwha. x.com
XPeng could re-rate dramatically if the market starts pricing it beyond EVs. It trades like a car company while quietly building autonomous driving, embodied AI and robotics optionality, at a fraction of the valuation of Tesla, which trades like an AI and robotics company. x.com
Mobileye has been dead money, down 35% over the past year, and an autonomous-driving future is not a reason to own it. x.com x.com
Mobileye's AI talent, incredible mathematicians and professors in AI, makes it worth scooping up as a long-term holding at this price, the same thesis that worked for Palantir after it fell from $32 to $8. Steve Cohen bought 5% of the company, so it will have its day in the sun. @Stonefoxcapital notes Mobileye trades at $7 today. x.com
Aptiv's spinoff of its low-margin wiring business left a higher-margin connectors, sensors and ADAS company the market has not repriced. At $61.88 it trades at about 10.5x the $5.90 midpoint of 2026 EPS guidance, versus 12-15x for auto suppliers and 18-25x for auto tech, with EBITDA margin guided up to 18.6%. Q1 bookings of $4.6B included about $900M non-auto, an early sign of robotics optionality. Risks: Q1 margin compression and negative free cash flow. Base case $85-90. x.com
Physical AI is the natural progression of the AI trade, and Ouster is likely to lead it. Micropolis is an under-the-radar robotics stock praised by Nvidia and collaborating with Ouster and Siemens. Ainos, a $15 million microcap whose AI scent technology drew Wall Street Journal coverage and is in early deployment in semiconductor fabs per @kingtutcap, is a speculative play that looks like ASTI in December, when the space trade began. Mobileye and Serve Robotics are also part of the theme. x.com … Show more
