Jason's Chips
Buy-Side AI & Semiconductor Investor
The memory shortage should hold through this cycle, because every route around DRAM's high margins tightens supply before it loosens it. Memory makers earn roughly 90% gross margins on DRAM, about a 10x markup, and Hot Chips' memory day showed designers engineering around it. But those alternatives are 2-4 years from volume, and the nearest use more wafers per bit: per Micron, HBM uses about 3x DDR5's silicon, and high-bandwidth flash needs roughly 9x the NAND it displaces. x.comÂ
The memory shortage is now so severe it is the elephant in the room at the Hot Chips conference, with memory roughly 70% of a rack. That is not the most bullish sign for DRAM makers, though, since much of the industry is dedicating careers to cutting the price of their product, from Samsung's processing-in-memory to 3D DRAM and high-bandwidth flash. x.com x.comÂ
Memory remains structurally scarce because SK hynix says conventional DRAM and HBM are practically sold out through 2029, while customers request roughly twice the HBM volume it can produce. Long-term agreements cover more than half of 2027 and 2028 capacity, and the company expects the supply-demand imbalance to persist through 2030. x.com x.comÂ
Memory supply looks constrained through at least 2030 because HBM, vertical HBM and vertical edge-inference memory require more wafers per bit than standard DRAM. Micron's roadmap shows that wafer pressure persisting as those products arrive; its illustrative product timing remains subject to change. x.comÂ
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.comÂ
Micron's bet on 3D DRAM over rivals' 4F2 could give it an edge as AI memory demand rises. Micron expects shortages for at least two more years: HBM per GPU rose 3.6x from H100 to B300, inference memory per server doubled in three years, and agent context grows about 30x annually. It plans further 6F2 nodes, 1-delta DRAM in 2H27 and 400-plus-layer G11 NAND in 2027; processor-stacked vHBM is targeted around 2028. If Micron is right, rivals are spending on the wrong path. Overweight Micron. x.comÂ
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.comÂ
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.comÂ
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
Sold-ahead RAM and new factories should benefit memory makers and suppliers. Micron sold most of next year's output at much higher prices; its CEO sees a shortage through 2028 with no balance date. SK hynix leads HBM with over 60% share and raised $26.5 billion in July for factories. Micron's planned $25 billion first-half capex pays Lam Research before chips ship. Rambus earns on AI server RAM modules without fabs; Roundhill Memory ETF offers diversified shortage exposure. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
3D-stacked DRAM could constrain bit output even more than today's HBM, preventing memory oversupply beyond 2030. HBM demand already diverts capacity from conventional DRAM; logic-integrated stacks could add pressure if they scale around 2029-30. That comparison depends on the architecture being understood correctly, and memory makers have not settled the DRAM process nodes. x.comÂ
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.comÂ
