Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
SolarEdge and Enphase are both best positioned for solid-state transformers, and both are mid-term accumulation candidates, with no preference yet between them. Per a post the author replies to, Enphase uses Infineon's GaN bidirectional switches for its SST. Their charts suggest the monster move can continue. x.com x.comÂ
The Iran war will restart the energy-independence narrative, so demand for SolarEdge and Enphase is bound to grow and start a new cycle. Conviction is high, betting big on the hope that the uptrend is only just starting. x.com x.comÂ
Enphase is still a business in contraction: Q2's sequential improvement came almost entirely from safe-harbor shipments booked ahead of tax-credit deadlines, not returning end demand. Those deals pull volume forward, and a tariff refund after the Supreme Court voided IEEPA tariffs flattered GAAP results one time. US revenue, the large majority, is still shrinking. The IQ Solid-State Transformer is an interesting second act, but one clean demand-driven quarter is needed first. x.comÂ
Solar is the cheapest energy source to build right now as its costs keep falling, making First Solar, Array Technologies, Shoals and the solar ETF the solar plays within the energy transition. Elon Musk says solar will eventually supply essentially all the energy humanity harnesses because the giant fusion reactor in the sky is free. x.comÂ
Solar equities stand to benefit as solar generation accelerates rapidly across Texas's ERCOT grid, becoming one of the state's fastest-growing electricity sources. The largest beneficiaries span the sector: NextPower's utility-scale trackers, First Solar's US-made thin-film modules, T1 Energy's domestic modules, Enphase's microinverters and storage, SolarEdge's inverters, Sunrun's residential solar, and HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital's clean-energy financing. x.comÂ
Solar stocks are trades, not investments, because the industry is a perennial long-term loser despite the continued growth of solar power. As Warren Buffett said of airlines, the urge to invest should be resisted no matter how attractive Enphase, Sunrun, First Solar, SolarEdge, Nextracker, Array Technologies, Canadian Solar or even a broad solar ETF may look. That holds even as @optionscjp notes Enphase is turning toward commercial data center projects. x.comÂ
Enphase, SolarEdge and Fluence are being sold while their order books grow. Power consumption is expected to rise 65% in a year, yet these energy stocks fell 10% or more in a day; the market just does not see the demand yet. x.comÂ
Enphase and SolarEdge, dead home-solar stocks, have a credible path through a pivot to solid-state transformers, which @tailrisked calls the future of grid technology. It remains a very speculative play warranting only small positions. x.comÂ
First Solar has lost its appeal because of how its bookings have been trending, while power names Vistra and Talen look cheap. x.comÂ
Battery and solar stocks like T1 Energy, FuelCell Energy, Fluence, Ford, Nextracker and First Solar are a short-term trade on unusual technical strength and large call option flows. The cause is unclear; the guess is that investors expect an energy shift away from oil and gas after the Iran war, with solar and batteries the most viable options and nuclear seen as a costly 2030s dream. Per Chris Wright's interview, the Trump administration is unblocking nuclear rules, so nuclear is tradable too. … Show more