Indian equities look finished as the rupee breaks down. Charts of Indian equities, 10-year bond yields and USD/INR have now all confirmed the bearish call, after USD/INR's breakout, flagged earlier as the signal for India's peak. USD/INR is approaching 100 and should break it easily, while the central bank is about $200B short dollars. x.com 

Indian stocks are correcting because valuations ran too high, even though the economy is still growing around 7%. Rising oil prices and a weaker rupee are the main sources of pressure, with heavy foreign selling and sharp falls in small and mid caps wiping out ₹20 lakh crore of market value in just 28 trading sessions. x.com 

Indian equities look like a near-term short given dire unemployment and political turmoil in India. x.com 

US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

US stocks could face a meaningful correction because the macro backdrop is deteriorating across bonds and inflation. The secular bull market is still expected to continue afterward, with a key factor potentially limiting the correction's severity. x.com  x.com 

US equities look vulnerable to a significant correction before another sustainable rally: 3.4% inflation, roughly $100 Brent, a 5.2% 10-year yield and just 29K new September jobs contrast with fresh index highs, while the Magnificent 7 make up 34.9% of the S&P 500. Strong AI earnings expectations and liquidity could keep shares elevated longer than expected. x.com 

Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.com 

The S&P 500's index structure is still weak, and a break of its 200-day moving average could bring another 5-10% drop. Rates are no longer falling, leaving an almost lose-lose setup: either rates stay high and valuations compress, or cuts come because a weaker economy and layoffs hit demand and stocks. With a war ongoing and the index only about 5% off its highs, patience and caution are warranted until the structure clears. x.com 

Gold looks like the safest place to go defensive now. Geopolitics are bad, the market is losing key support, inflation will be hard to avoid and rate cuts are less likely. Gold has had a breather and is back on support, while trends look broken on many other assets and do not reverse easily. Returns may not be the best, but this is a time when safety matters more. x.com 

European equities are next in a cascading collapse running from China and India to Europe and then the US. A reversal in EUR/USD should take them back below their 2007 peak. x.com