Indian equities look like a near-term short given dire unemployment and political turmoil in India. x.com
SV_Techie
Entrepreneur & Startup Mentor, Technology Investor
Extremely poor global sentiment and a government warning to keep cash aside for the next two to three years cloud Indian equities' recovery. It is unclear whether the market will even make a comeback anytime soon. x.com
Indian stocks are correcting because valuations ran too high, even though the economy is still growing around 7%. Rising oil prices and a weaker rupee are the main sources of pressure, with heavy foreign selling and sharp falls in small and mid caps wiping out ₹20 lakh crore of market value in just 28 trading sessions. x.com
Indian equities look finished as the rupee breaks down. Charts of Indian equities, 10-year bond yields and USD/INR have now all confirmed the bearish call, after USD/INR's breakout, flagged earlier as the signal for India's peak. USD/INR is approaching 100 and should break it easily, while the central bank is about $200B short dollars. x.com
Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.com
MakeMyTrip is essentially a bet on the Indian economy and middle-class expansion. The stock has been hammered by a short report and broader geopolitical headwinds that make travel more expensive. x.com
US large-cap equities look too close to their highs for a weak macro backdrop. Oil has crossed $100, rates are at 5%, inflation is worse than reported and real jobs are scarce, yet the market sits only 2% off its highs. The S&P 500 is about to lose its 50-day moving average. x.com x.com