Extremely poor global sentiment and a government warning to keep cash aside for the next two to three years cloud Indian equities' recovery. It is unclear whether the market will even make a comeback anytime soon. x.com 

Indian equities look like a near-term short given dire unemployment and political turmoil in India. x.com 

Indian equities look finished as the rupee breaks down. Charts of Indian equities, 10-year bond yields and USD/INR have now all confirmed the bearish call, after USD/INR's breakout, flagged earlier as the signal for India's peak. USD/INR is approaching 100 and should break it easily, while the central bank is about $200B short dollars. x.com 

Korean equities are correcting like an altcoin after moving like one, going from euphoria to a bear market in barely a month. A rush of new investors, leverage and AI-chip hype drove the KOSPI up too fast, and much of the drop is that excess being flushed out, with war fears and rising oil adding pressure. x.com 

The US dollar is about to move higher, and a rising rate of change in the 10-year yield is a risk alongside oil. Selling is picking up under the surface, beyond a breadth breakdown, with rotation into tech delaying the risk. @LJKawa notes the last time the S&P 500 was this close to a record with so few members above their 200-day averages was March 27, 2000, the day after the dot-com closing peak. Index resilience could mean an air pocket lower, or a bounce in equal-weight and small caps. x.com 

Emerging-market stocks are much weaker than the index suggests: excluding the top three stocks, the emerging-markets ETF is heavily down. As Scott Charts notes, Taiwan now has a bigger weight than China despite a far smaller economy, and Samsung and SK hynix together outweigh all of India. x.com 

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Korean equities are set up for more damage because retail investors hold the most leveraged position in market history at the highest valuation, after the smart money left. The KOSPI tripled in a year on AI chips, with Samsung and SK hynix about half the index, then fell 9.99% on June 23 as foreigners and institutions sold about $8.5 billion. Retail bought a record $7.16 billion, funded by record margin debt of 38.48 trillion won and new 2x single-stock ETFs, and kept buying the bounce. x.com 

Gold has become cheap enough for Indian buyers after the rupee's collapse that it rebounds hard as soon as it meets real buying. Per @mining, citing Reuters, India's gold discount fell 67% in a week, from $43 an ounce to $14, as buyers returned at a two-month low, and a Mumbai dealer said it could flip to a premium. The rupee has lost 23% against the dollar in five years, and the Dussehra and early-November Diwali festivals are approaching. x.com 

US stocks carry step-function downside risk from a ubiquitous market narrative, over-investment, rich valuations and pernicious inflation. Circuit breakers and a more activist government and Fed do not remove it. A sudden step move is the one thing vol-targeting funds and pod shops cannot handle, so market machinery would break down and chaos could linger. As in 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007, the trigger may stay absent for a while, letting the boom run until the last bear gives up. x.com  x.com