Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Micron appears to be projecting a very large price increase, great news for Micron and bad news for buyers such as Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Micron said it expects higher gross margins beyond fiscal Q1 for the rest of fiscal 2027, as quoted by @pequityresearch. The Fed has said AI cost increases are passing through to consumer prices, and Treasury yields jumped 0.03% as Micron's earnings hit; AI costs are set to send yields and inflation higher. x.com x.comÂ
Memory prices won't top soon because GPU and CPU makers are limited by memory and will keep paying up rather than make less money. Every GPU and CPU maker cited memory limits as the reason they couldn't expand production, and a company earning 75% margins and $60 billion a quarter won't balk at HBM prices. There will be no significant capacity expansion regardless of promises, so calling a top for Micron, SK hynix and SanDisk is wrong; a reversal would only come if the bond market breaks. x.comÂ
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.comÂ
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.comÂ
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.comÂ
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.comÂ
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
Micron can still benefit from rising memory prices because 70% remains open to pricing. Those prices have been rocketing, countering LogicalThesis's claim that long-term agreements lock away the upside. x.comÂ
Micron's memory leadership remains intact because it is sold out into 2027. A red day does not change those fundamentals; anyone arguing it has topped must identify which part of demand breaks and when. x.comÂ
Micron's risk-reward for longs is unappealing because Chinese memory makers could crush the non-HBM profits that still make up most of its earnings. State-backed firms such as CXMT trail in HBM but can aggressively expand low-end capacity if Beijing wants, as China has done elsewhere. HBM growth is unlikely to offset that: memory nears 50% of rack bill of materials, and Micron locking in half its revenue for five years at capped prices suggests pricing has peaked, leaving growth to volume. x.com … Show more
Micron's pricing strength should last, with management saying memory and storage supply and demand will be much tighter through 2028 and guiding 2027 stronger than 2026. Revenue rose 379% year over year and EPS 1,002%, with cloud, core data center, mobile/client and auto all up triple digits or more. Customer agreements rose to 26 from 16 quarter over quarter. x.comÂ
