SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.com 

SpaceX was not a buy at its IPO because of its share unlock schedule, and that call is now playing out. Per @WatcherGuru, the stock has hit a post-IPO low below $140. x.com 

SpaceX's feared lockup selling never came, removing the main reason to wait until December to buy. The first lockup expiry passed without the immense selling many expected, and it rarely pays to bet against Elon Musk. x.com 

SpaceX stock is better left alone until IPO hype, price discovery and insider supply settle, even though SpaceX is an incredible company. Jay Ritter's data show US IPOs from 2001-2024 lagged the market by about 14.7% over three years. SpaceX listed at $135, briefly topped $200 and has already had a massive drawdown, and its first major lockup expiry is making hundreds of millions of shares sellable against an unusually small float. A great company is not a great investment at every price. x.com 

SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com 

SpaceX stock should benefit from basic supply and demand: its float is relatively low and it is on a fast track into the Nasdaq-100, so institutions need to position ahead of inclusion. Current market conditions and sentiment support that, and in a generational bull market the best approach is to stay invested in winners. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.com 

SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is an amazing company at an amazing price tag: a $2.7T market cap on $23B of projected 2027 EBITDA and no expected positive net income, versus Microsoft at $2.9T with $240B of EBITDA. The valuation reflects highly speculative but amazing future prospects and how few shares opened at the IPO. It will likely keep exploding higher for a while before an inevitable cool-off. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's IPO looks richly priced at about $1.75T for an unprofitable, founder-controlled, thin-float company, with demand driven by forced index buying rather than confidence. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell added fast-entry rules, making funds such as QQQ mandated buyers, while fully invested index funds must sell existing mega-caps to fund the new weight. The founder keeps about 82.4% of the vote, and 90–180 day lockups will add fresh supply once the forced bid fades. x.com