Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is a unique company, but its valuation is crazy because its numbers do not match the price it was sold at. Leasing unused compute to Google and Anthropic could be a good business, but it does not justify these levels; below $100 would make sense. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.com 

SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.com 

SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more