SpaceX already prices in its Anthropic and Google compute contracts at 56x forward EV/sales. Even after a 30% drop it would still lead every US megacap at roughly 39x; Palantir is second at 34x, and every other top-100 name is below 20x. x.com 

SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.com 

SpaceX can capture more upside from AI compute scarcity by selling capacity near spot prices instead of locking in today's rates. Potential Anthropic and Google commitments total about $151B, with 90-day termination rights, while bare-metal pricing has risen from $10-15M to nearly $50M in annual revenue per MW. Elon Musk says contract payback could be as short as six months in 2027. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.com 

SpaceX's valuation was completely stupid, and the stock could fall to $100. x.com 

SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.com 

SpaceX's compute outlook improves as Anthropic commits more spending and institutions fund its GPU expansion. Anthropic's S-1 lists up to $120.5B in SpaceXAI compute purchases through 2029; Pimco bought $4B of the roughly $40B Apollo-led GPU debt package. The GPU lease is expected to close before year-end and entails about $40B in principal payments, not new shares. Elon Musk says Starlink Mobile will take 2-3 years to build out, versus the 4-6 years estimated by Verizon's CEO. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX stock is still too expensive to buy, though staying super bearish no longer makes much sense. StockViking's point that the stock is egregiously overvalued against fundamentals largely holds, and the better move is waiting for it to get cheaper. After hearing Gavin Baker, the upside is clearer: if NVIDIA's Jensen Huang gives Elon Musk enough Vera Rubin allocation, SpaceX could in theory become the largest neocloud by a mile. NVIDIA is working with SpaceX on space-based compute. x.com  x.com  … Show more