Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
Snap is one of the worst-run public companies relative to its potential, and CEO Evan has proved he is terrible at creating shareholder value. Stock-based awards to the board and over 5,000 employees dilute shareholders about 4% a year. Per @WOLF_Financial, Q1 EPS missed at -$0.05 versus $0.09 expected, the EBITDA guide fell short and Snap ended its Perplexity deal. It is not a dead company, but there are many better opportunities. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Snap is now a bearish call because stock-based compensation didn't fall materially. That could flip if Evan Spiegel cuts SBC, with Google Cloud opex and monetization able to materially change the picture. x.comÂ
Snap's Spectacles cannot deliver meaningful commercial value within five years, making a funding partner essential to avoid years of cash burn. At best, they are a prototype, with zero chance of profitability in the next couple of years; the glasses will never sell at the scale needed to make a difference. Without a partner, Snap stock is dead money. Even so, Snap remains a good asymmetric bet on Evan Spiegel changing course, with little downside from here if he does not. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Snap is a red flag that does not put shareholders' interests first. Its growth comes mainly from countries with low pricing power while it plateaus or declines in the West. It has long diluted shareholders in a way that enriches its founders, and the CEO and his co-founder control over 90% of voting rights, leaving shareholders powerless. It should have been acquired when it had the chance. @Ashton_1nvests sees a path from about $6 to $20 or more. x.comÂ
Snap's problem is its management, which can't be replaced because founders hold super-voting shares. The business doesn't need reinventing, only better monetization of existing users and continued cost cuts, but that requires new leadership. x.comÂ
Snap should work because CEO Evan Spiegel needs access to capital to get where he wants to go, which requires shareholder alignment; the plan does not work without either. A replier adds that getting Specs to market requires a high stock price. x.comÂ
Snap is an eternal value trap: cheap on paper, but weighed down by regulatory headaches, TikTok eating its lunch and endless dilution. x.comÂ
Snap is not investable until at least a change in management. Per @HatedMoats, Meta and Google have tried to buy Snap for years, even at 3x its value, and been refused each time. The CEO, who owns about 10%, should take a sale at the right price, such as $30B, or risk being left with nothing. x.comÂ
Snap looks very interesting as a long-term buy at a forward P/E of 6 and a PEG of 0.21. Growth is expected near 10% for the next two years, with positive earnings expected from next year. x.comÂ
Snap is a textbook case of shareholder value destruction through failed execution, massive stock-based compensation and super-voting shares. Per TechCrunch, it is now spinning off its AI video team into a new company, Dotmo, because of high costs. x.comÂ